Mercedes present ‘hypothesis’ behind Lewis Hamilton’s 8-1 deficit to George Russell

Mercedes technical director James Allison admitted that George Russell leading Lewis Hamilton 8-1 in the qualifying head-to-head was not among his early predictions for the year, but offered a personal theory for why he thinks that might be the case.

With this year’s tyres being “fussy” and several drivers surprising with their pace in free practice before falling away in qualifying, Allison wonders if the car-tyre combination throughout the field, not just at Mercedes, is averse to being “hustled” over the course of a full lap.

Lewis Hamilton vs George Russell to ‘become more meaningful’ with improved pace

Mercedes have shown significant pace improvements in recent races, with Allison and the technical team at the Silver Arrows having introduced several prominent upgrades that enabled Russell to place his car on pole in Canada, with the two Brits fighting for the final podium place in the closing laps in Montréal.

Allison pointed out the W15 had been a “pretty troubled beast” in the early part of the season, and with the improvements the team have made, the qualifying battle should become more pertinent as the year progresses.

That said, the difference at this stage is still surprising, given Hamilton’s status as Formula 1’s statistical greatest ever qualifier.

“I wouldn’t have predicted 8-1,” Allison told the Beyond the Grid podcast when reminded of the Mercedes drivers’ current qualifying head-to-head ratio.

“And I think that for a chunk of the year, the car has been a pretty troubled beast.

“It’s become a much, much better car in the last two or three races and, with that, I think the judgments about who may or may not put it in front of the other car become more meaningful, because the car is less of a random number generator.

“Lewis has, not by accident, been the best qualifier in the history of the sport, because I think he’s been the best driver in the sport, but he’s struggling to make it stick this year by fine margins, as you say.

How do Lewis Hamilton and George Russell match up in qualifying and race trim this season?

? F1 2024: Head-to-head qualifying records between team-mates

? F1 2024: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates

“I think, to a degree, I was speculating this in an email I sent to the factory yesterday that the current car-tyre combo, not just us, across the pit lane, it doesn’t like being hustled – you almost get the best lap times when you’re not trying.

“And you see every weekend, you’ll see someone pop a lap time in free practice or in qualifying, in some session or other, you’ll see some car and you think, ‘how did that get there?’ And then they don’t do it again, it sort of disappears in the mist straight after.

“I think in qualifying it’s quite hard, where you’re all pumped up and you’re wanting to get the best from it, to do a lap that is sort of relaxed enough to get the best out of the car.”

There was high praise for Russell, too, who earned the nickname ‘Mr Saturday’ for his performances where he would often out-perform his equipment in his time at Williams, getting into Q2 and beyond when his car at the time often appeared not up to the task.

Allison explained the gap between the two has levelled out in the races this season, but acknowledged the speed Russell has shown over one lap so far this season.

“I think he’s very, very consistent at getting the car at its best in qualifying trim – he’s really good at that,” the Mercedes technical director said.

“I think it’s much more even in the race and Lewis’ race pace has been very strong relative to George on a number of occasions this year, but in qualifying, George has definitely had the better of it.”

Hamilton had said after qualifying in Monaco that he did not “anticipate” beating Russell potentially for the remainder of the year in qualifying, after his team-mate ran the only upgraded front wing available to the team after the two agreed he would run it.

Allison was quick to confirm the equipment available to the drivers at other times is “identical”, and called it “not fair” to suggest they are being treated differently.

“Well, I think if you just look at the stats, 8-1, 7-1 back then, but maybe it would be reasonable to think if that trend continues, there won’t be many times when he’ll be on pole.

“I think that if you try and read into that stuff that isn’t there, like somehow he’s got a systematic disadvantage on qualifying day, that’s not true and not fair.

“So far as we can make it, the cars are identical. The engine use is identical. If the cars are different on setup, it’s because that’s what the driving engineering team on either side of the garage have iterated to.

“But they have the chance to have identical stuff if they chose. On one occasion this year and famously in Monaco, they had a different front wing on the car because we only had one available and we took the decision that we would get that wing on the car as soon as we could, and it had to go to one or the other.

“We had the conversation and Lewis said ‘no, I’ll let George have it’.”

When asked further about Hamilton’s feeling with the car seemingly lacking in qualifying compared to free practice, Allison explained that his theory regarding tyres – while still a theory – was one he would want to discuss with other teams, to see if they are experiencing a similar phenomenon.

“If you come back to my emphasis that it’s my hypothesis that the cars don’t like being hustled, that they give you the best lap time when the driver is surprised by the lap time,” he responded.

“[It would] be interesting [to] talk up and down the pit lane and see whether this is an experience elsewhere.

“But when the car is producing good laps, the drivers that are almost like, ‘I wasn’t expecting that, I was almost cruising.’

“And when it’s qualifying and the pressure’s on and it’s time to deliver, I don’t think those are the circumstances that get the best from quite fussy tyres.”

Read next: Revealed: The five drivers that should be on Haas’ 2025 shortlist