Perez out, Colapinto in? How Red Bull could solve critical F1 2025 driver dilemma

Liam Lawson’s impressive weekend at COTA has served as a warning shot across the bows of Sergio Perez.

The Mexican driver’s career at Red Bull has been plagued by speculation but, following the organisation’s decision to chop Daniel Ricciardo from its line-up, the focus is now firmly on Sergio Perez and what he brings to the team.

Liam Lawson’s peppy arrival at VCARB exactly what Red Bull needed

After months of speculation, Lawson was dropped into Ricciardo’s seat as Red Bull finally decided the Australian driver was not ever going to reach the level of performance they wanted to see to merit an F1 return.

Much has been made this year about the organisation’s desire, particularly amongst shareholders, to see the VCARB squad return to its Toro Rosso roots as a proving ground for junior drivers – spelling the end for the 35-year-old Ricciardo.

With Ricciardo gone, all eyes were on Lawson for his first race back in F1 in a year. Whilst it’s technically accurate to say “back in F1”, Lawson is very much a rookie – five races as a stand-in last year is a driver barely getting their feet wet – and COTA marked his first race as a ‘permanent’ driver, even if it is only for six races (for now).

Given the “soft landing”, to use Christian Horner’s words, that Lawson had as he picked up a grid penalty before even stepping into the car, it was hardly surprising that Lawson duly produced a combative and feisty drive in both the Sprint and the Grand Prix – to the point where his racing tactics annoyed the veteran Fernando Alonso to the point of him threatening to “screw” the Kiwi.

If there’s one thing Red Bull don’t want from its driver, it is anonymity in the midfield – and Lawson, starting from 15th on the hard tyre, wound up in the points in ninth at the chequered flag. Tsunoda, on the other hand, was the victim of a weaker VCARB strategy as he was called in to pit to shed his mediums after just 18 laps.

Any chance of a Tsunoda fightback was negated by a late-race spin, and the Japanese driver’s face gave away his unhappiness as he spoke to media, including PlanetF1.com, after the chequered flag: “I was P8, P7, and he was starting P15, and if I spin in the middle of the race before that spin, I understand I’m behind him.

“But I don’t understand why I’m being behind, why he’s rejoining in front of me. But definitely, this race, the drivers extended the first stint and it worked well. But obviously it’s hard to expect and also. But that’s that and also definitely I have to reveal my mistake as well. Everything.”

So, while there was misfortune on Tsunoda’s side, there was an opportunity on Lawson’s – and he duly delivered upon that opportunity to add to the points he scored in Singapore last year – a little bit of damage control for VCARB as Haas moved ahead into sixth in the Constructors’ Championship.

Red Bull’s driver line-ups are far from set in stone – even for F1 2024

On paper, the Red Bull driver line-ups look like they’re done and dusted – Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez at Red Bull Racing, and Yuki Tsunoda at VCARB with a vacant seat, likely to be filled by Lawson for F1 2025.

But what has been intriguing about Lawson’s appointment in place of Ricciardo is that it has been made very clear he is only scheduled for these last six races. While Lawson’s name was briefly linked with the vacant seat at Sauber/Audi, he’s understood to have nailed his colours to the Red Bull mast – so why hasn’t he been confirmed for the empty VCARB cockpit already, given it would be a straightforward internal hiring?

The implication of this is that Perez’s two-year contract extension at Red Bull is very far from certain. 2024 has been his weakest season as a teammate to Verstappen and, aside from him driving well in Azerbaijan – a track he has previously beaten Verstappen at – he has been largely anonymous as Red Bull’s RB20 has been surpassed by others.

It’s Perez’s weakness that has directly led to Red Bull’s Constructors’ Championship lead being dissipated and lost, with McLaren’s stronger driver pairing moving the Woking-based squad into the lead as there’s no sign of a riposte from Red Bull.

It’s led to consternation at Red Bull – what do the reigning World Champions do to give themselves a chance at challenging McLaren, especially now with Ferrari closing in at a rapid rate of knots? Perez’s form is such that Verstappen may well win the title while driving for a team finishing third in the championship – a situation that hasn’t occurred in 41 years.

Certainly, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko has made it clear that Perez’s position is far from secure after the Mexican produced an underwhelming weekend at COTA.

“Perez has a contract, but Formula 1 is a meritocracy,” he told Germany’s F1-Insider.

“If the performance is not right, even contracts are of no use. At the end of the season, we will sit down and then decide who is the best teammate for Red Bull for Verstappen.”

It can’t be any blunter than that, can it? Signing Perez early to his updated contract was supposed to bring about confidence in himself, knowing his future at the team is secure and allowing him to drive naturally, but it simply hasn’t worked. If anything, Perez’s form has dipped even more than when he’s had to prove himself again for a fresh contract.

There’s no doubt that Perez is a willing rear gunner for Verstappen, and the heroics of Abu Dhabi 2021 curried favour for a long time – but his abilities behind the wheel, when put up against the driver pairings at Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes, simply are not enough when the car’s performance level isn’t quite there.

It begs the question of whether Perez’s seat is even safe until the end of this season. After all, Red Bull’s 40-point deficit to McLaren is not irreparable, and a driver not too far behind Verstappen on performance would bolster the team’s scoring ability over the last handful of race weekends.

This weekend marks the Mexico City Grand Prix, the race around which so much speculation has centred this season. Perez has denied he’s planning to announce his retirement at his home race, as was rumoured, but the understanding of Red Bull’s decision-making, commercial agreements aside, regarding the potential driver swap after Spa-Francorchamps also took into account how the likes of a fresh-faced rookie like Lawson would handle the pressure of being hated by the droves of Mexican fans in the stands this weekend.

Once this weekend is over, that tenuous safety net is ripped out from under Perez. If he can’t stop the rot and start helping Verstappen add to Red Bull’s points in a more productive fashion, what exactly does Red Bull have to lose by slotting Lawson into place?

If that 40-point deficit increases, and Lawson has another strong weekend relative to Tsunoda, would it be impossible to imagine Lawson being in the Red Bull by the time the final, critical, triple-header rolls around?

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What about F1 2025?

What does appear certain is that Perez’s seat is in genuine danger for next season, and that the only reason he’s hung on as long as he has is that Red Bull simply hasn’t had a better option – helped by the fact Ricciardo was also not up to the standard required.

This handful of races gives Red Bull the data to see whether Lawson’s racecraft and temperament match up to his speed, and whether the Verstappen/Lawson line-up is enough to be able to deliver titles next year, as well as future-proofing itself for if Verstappen does eventually decide to go elsewhere or leave F1.

The big question is whether or not it’s too late for Perez to turn things around at this point anyway – his 2024 season has been so poor that even five consecutive strong race weekends isn’t a particularly big data set to work with for next season.

Tsunoda doesn’t appear in contention in any shape or form for the role of Verstappen’s teammate, with his own temperament understood to be a big negative against him despite his improvements over the last 12 months. The Japanese driver is set to drive the RB20 in the post-season Pirelli test, but this outing has been organised together with Honda, rather than being a chance for Tsunoda to stake his claim.

Of course, there’s always the possibility Tsunoda proves unignorably impressive in the RB20 but, given he’s had four years with the Red Bull junior team and appears as out of favour as ever, it would take a monumental performance to haul himself into contention.

Assuming Perez doesn’t do enough to keep his seat, Lawson would thus appear to be the leading candidate to replace him – a situation that appears more likely than not at this point.

But what of VCARB? Regardless of Tsunoda’s frustrations, he hasn’t got any better options elsewhere on the grid so isn’t likely to seek to sever ties, but who would be his teammate? Perez seems unlikely, even if he was offered the option – the shareholders want youth and exuberance. If Ricciardo wasn’t enough, then Perez surely isn’t.

So why not take a chance on F1’s latest and most exciting rookie, the effervescent Franco Colapinto? The Argentinean driver has breathed fresh life into the stagnating Williams line-up and, such has been his form, he’s even had the legs on the highly-rated Alex Albon.

Colapinto, taking to F1 with aplomb given his lack of experience, is taking the sport by storm and has scored points in two of his first four races. No mistakes, plenty of speed, a buoyant personality, and a huge existing fanbase in South America – he’s the exact type of driver to be extremely valuable to a marketing-savvy racing organisation like Red Bull.

Speaking to Motorsport-Total after the Singapore Grand Prix, Colapinto even earned praise from Marko, who stressed that he is a Williams driver.

“We see it with Colapinto,” he said, “as a relatively inexperienced and not very successful guy in the junior series, although it must be said that he never had the top teams, but what an incredible performance he is having now.

“I think he has a long-term contract with Williams. He will definitely be someone in the future. What he showed was very, very good, both in Baku and in Singapore.”

PlanetF1.com’s understanding of the situation is that Colapinto cannot be ruled out of contention for a seat with the VCARB team at this point, although a swoop for his services also requires plenty of pieces to fall into place.

Of course, Red Bull junior Isack Hadjar is also waiting in the wings while he bids to win this year’s Formula 2 title. Winning that would underline his credentials to Red Bull, but would it be enough to place him above the rapidly proven F1 quantity that is the contractless Colapinto?

And, while unlikely, might Red Bull opt to sever ties with Tsunoda entirely if there’s no future planned with him, in order to make it a clean slate of Colapinto/Hadjar in a bid for further future-proofing?

It’s clear there’s much to organise within the Red Bull ranks over the next few weeks, and it’s also clear Lawson’s form in the US has triggered a lack of calm behind the scenes over what to do on the driver front – will there be another big surprise before the end of the championship?

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