F1 2024 title permutations: Can Lando Norris really beat Max Verstappen to the World title?

Lando Norris is in hot pursuit of Max Verstappen for his first World Championship and, although the gap is significant, he can take a cue from Sebastian Vettel for inspiration.

Ahead of the Italian GP, Lando Norris is 70 points behind Max Verstappen in the Drivers’ standings. The British driver has a long way to go to complete the comeback, but the mathematics are in his favour and it is up to his own performance and that of the McLaren MCL38 to beat the three-time World Champion.

F1 2024 title permutations: Can Lando Norris overhaul Max Verstappen?

Norris still has nine races and three Sprints to complete what could be the greatest comeback ever seen in Formula 1 under the current points system (25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1), a points system that was implemented in 2010 and since then, with the exception of the 2021 season, has seen three eras of singular dominance.

The first era of Red Bull from 2010 to 2013, Mercedes from 2014 to 2020 and again Red Bull from 2022 to the present – we will see if McLaren is finally able to stop it, at least in the Constructors’ Championship.

However, within these eras of dominance with few title fights, there are two seasons that stand out above the rest and can be of great inspiration to Lando.

Sebastian Vettel’s 2010 and 2012 comebacks are probably the most memorable performances in the last 14 years of World Championship contention, excluding 2021 of course.

In 2010, Sebastian Vettel clinched the first of his four F1 World Championships with Red Bull in surprise fashion. The big favourite before the final race in Abu Dhabi was Fernando Alonso with an eight-point lead over Mark Webber and 15 points over Vettel. Ferrari was blinded by protecting Alonso’s position over Webber and gave the World Championship to Seb.

This 2010 season had many ups and downs where Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button, teammates at McLaren, were also in the mix. There was a point in the year, with six races to go, where it looked like Mark Webber was going to be the champion. The Australian driver was 28 points ahead of Vettel and 38 ahead of Fernando Alonso.

However, Alonso made a great comeback to put himself back in the title hunt with a run of three wins and five podiums in six races. Sebastian Vettel followed suit with three wins of his own and four podiums to go into the final race with a mathematical chance of becoming champion, as he eventually did.

In 2012, a season that can be more similar to the current one, we had seven different winners in the first seven races. There was no clear hegemony in terms of performance: McLaren was the fastest car overall, followed by Red Bull and a step behind were Lotus and Ferrari.

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However, there were two drivers who stood out above the rest: Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso. Seb had a clearly superior car to Alonso’s Ferrari, especially in the later stages of the season. Fernando had to pull out his magic to be a title contender and complete one of the best consistent performances by a driver in a full Formula 1 season.

With 10 races left in the season, Alonso led Vettel by 44 points. However, a collision from Romain Grosjean into Alonso at the start of the Belgian GP and a puncture after slight contact with Kimi Raikkonen at the start of the Japanese GP halted his upward progression towards his third title after the drama of Abu Dhabi in 2010.

Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull showed no mercy in the face of these events and brought out their full potential. The German took four consecutive wins and seven podiums in eight races, so in just seven rounds after reaching the maximum gap of 44 points, he was leading by 13 points over Alonso with three races to go.

Looking at these charts and data, essentially Lando Norris has to be inspired by these positive trends of Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in 2010 and 2012. And interestingly, with the latest update at Zandvoort, it looks like McLaren clearly has the fastest car on the grid regardless of the circuit characteristics – as happened to be the case with Red Bull in the second half of the 2012 season.

With 70 points to cut, nine Grands Prix and three Sprints, there is reason to believe that the fight for the championship between Verstappen and Norris is not over.

The maximum points difference between the two was reached after the British GP where the gap was 84 points. Norris has therefore cut 14 points in the last three races. It is a points average that is not in Norris’ favour as, with this trend, he would be 24 points behind Verstappen at the end of the championship.

Undoubtedly, Lando needs the McLaren to be superior enough to win every race – including the Sprints – and set the fastest lap in all of them to rely on himself regardless of Max Verstappen’s results and go into the final race in Abu Dhabi three points behind Max with everything to play for.

The ideal scenario for Lando is that the MCL38 is equal, or more superior, to the Red Bull than it was at Zandvoort and that Oscar Piastri also has a chance of finishing ahead of Max Verstappen on a regular basis.

This would give him some breathing space and take the pressure off knowing that he would not be obliged to win absolutely everything and rely solely on himself.

Another detail to bear in mind is that despite the car’s deficit, Max Verstappen is making very few mistakes this year. After starting the season by sweeping the field and after the proof that McLaren has a better car, Max has not given up and has managed to overcome adversity to minimise damage and always be in the fight, even at Zandvoort with a very difficult car to handle.

But knowing that Lando depends on himself and for that he has to make an almost perfect comeback, although he must not relax, Verstappen knows that with his usual driving style and without getting into big trouble, he is still the big favourite to win the World Championship in 2024 and become a four-time World Champion as Sebastian Vettel himself did with Red Bull.

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