Baku data confirms true Lando Norris Q1 exit culprit amid yellow flag drama

Lando Norris was knocked out in Q1 during Azerbaijan GP qualifying. The British driver finished P17 after having to abort his final attempt due to a yellow flag caused by Esteban Ocon and a previous driving error at Turn 16.

But…. Was it really bad luck because of the yellow flag or would his mistake have also sealed him elimination? Let’s find out.

Lando Norris was heading for Baku Q2 before yellow flag

Lando Norris ended up having to abort his final Q1 attempt when, in theory, he was about to improve his lap time. After making a costly mistake at Turn 16 that could also have cost him elimination – the loss of acceleration on the long straight was significant – a yellow flag forced him to lift his foot off the accelerator and lose any chance of progressing to Q2.

The stewards brought out the yellow flag just as Lando Norris was approaching Esteban Ocon. The Alpine driver had lost a wheel in his flying lap and wanted to return to the pits.

Ocon was off the racing line, but every time someone came up behind him, he lifted off the throttle and slowed down to avoid getting in the way.

As Lando approached Ocon, the Frenchman was driving very slowly and the yellow flag was waved, which lasted just a few seconds before the marshals showed the green flag again for the drivers behind him, such as Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz, who made it through to Q2.

The yellow flag caught Lando by surprise as he lifted his foot off the throttle pedal and alerted Will Joseph, his race engineer, to what was happening on track.

– LN: “Yellow flag, yellow flag! Can I go again or not?”
– WJ: “No, we have to box. Mate I’m sorry, they shouldn’t have done that.”

Wrong place, wrong time totally for Lando Norris who couldn’t do anything to avoid this bad situation that will force him to come back from P16 on track tomorrow, having been boosted a spot due to Pierre Gasly’s disqualification from the qualifying results after his car was found to have exceeded the fuel flow limit.

Lando Norris and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri head-to-head in F1 2024

? F1 2024: Head-to-head qualifying record between team-mates

? F1 2024: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates

But there is still the other big question: Would Lando have made it to Q2 if the yellow flag had not been shown? The answer is complicated. The only reference we can take to find out is Lando’s second attempt in Q1 prior to the last attempt where he encountered that unfortunate yellow flag.

Until his mistake at Turn 16, Lando Norris had been improving his time considerably in Sector 1 and Sector 2, with an accumulated delta of -0.587s. The mistake at Turn 16 cost him approximately +0.350s. The big problem is that Turn 16 is crucial to carry high speed into the long main straight.

So, to those three-and-a-half-tenths of a second loss, we would have to add the whole speed delta lost compared to his second attempt in Q1. Was the mistake so big that he was also eliminated without the yellow flag?

In my view, no. The loss of acceleration and speed was considerable, but that loss would not have accumulated over the metres to another two and a half tenths of a second.

Therefore, we can conclude that it was a very unlucky situation for Lando in Baku. Tomorrow he will have to make up a lot of positions. But just as he was unlucky today, this street circuit also offers a lot of good luck and opportunities due to the high safety car probability.

With a car with good pace and a more daring strategy than usual and a bit of luck, Lando could well be in the battle for the podium. But if luck doesn’t smile on him as it did today, he will have a very difficult race ahead of him where a P8 or P7 finish would already be a great success.

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