Max Verstappen and Red Bull set to pile more misery on Ferrari

The dark clouds are gathering for Ferrari as Max Verstappen heads for home turf with an RB18 genuinely superior in the Scuderia’s eyes.

As a Technical Directive came into force at the Belgian Grand Prix in a bid to address porpoising, much of the talk was about Mercedes and how this could potentially bring them back into the mix to fight Red Bull and Ferrari.

But, just like back in 2019 with that United States GP Technical Directive, Ferrari look to be the team that has taken the hit.

Generally, very little has separated Red Bull and Ferrari this season, but suddenly Verstappen was over six tenths clear of the fastest Ferrari in Belgium qualifying, that being Carlos Sainz. Come the race, Verstappen went from P14 on the grid, due to an engine penalty, to winning the race by almost 18 seconds over team-mate Sergio Perez.

Still, that was only one race, which creates the possibility that Verstappen’s almighty advantage was track specific. After all, the high-speed Spa track now makes way for the tight and technical Zandvoort. Ferrari, however, fear that this is not the case.

“I don’t think there is any hope in that,” admitted Ferrari principal Mattia Binotto, as per Motorsport.com. “It has been a true difference between us and the Red Bulls this weekend.”

So, if that was the start of a dominant streak from Verstappen, who could be going for nine wins in a row to end the season, like Sebastian Vettel did with Red Bull in 2013, then the last thing Ferrari needed was for the Dutch Grand Prix to be the next battleground.

Returning in 2021, a year later than planned, Circuit Zandvoort was redesigned to host the Dutch Grand Prix once more, an event essentially resurrected for Verstappen to give his loyal army of fans a home race to cheer him on at.

Verstappen delighted the crowd last year as he took a dominant Dutch GP win, that in a season where he and Lewis Hamilton fought for the title right down to the last lap of the season, so the signs absolutely do not look good for Ferrari.

What is making matters worse for Ferrari is their continued struggles with strategy. Seemingly devoid of confidence, Ferrari were having Leclerc play the roles of driver and engineer in Spa as they looked for him to make the calls on pit stops. That was after they sent him out in Q3 with the wrong set of tyres.

The titles already now look out of reach for Ferrari, Leclerc having slipped to P3 in the Drivers’ standings, 98 points behind Verstappen, while Ferrari trail Red Bull by 118.

But, Ferrari really do need to do something about the calls coming from the pit wall or risk their season going out on a whimper on two fronts, with an inferior car and strategists.

It could get worse still for Ferrari though if they are not careful, as Mercedes are not out of the conversation when it comes to P2 in the Constructors’, the same true in the Drivers’ standings.

As has been the case for much of the season, Mercedes took a step forward just to take two steps back in Spa, though in race trim Russell showed the threat which Mercedes can still pose to Ferrari.

Passing Leclerc, who had a visor tear-off from Verstappen’s car stuck in the brake cooling, Russell also took chunks of time out of Sainz at various points of the race, ultimately finishing just a couple of seconds behind.

While Mercedes have not often been as fast as Ferrari this season, the reigning eight-time Constructors’ champions have been reliable and sharp with their strategies, so Zandvoort would be a very good time for Ferrari to build that 41-point buffer over Mercedes further.

Behind this trio the midfield order is always subject to change, but Alpine are now starting to make a habit of leading that group of teams. With a P5 finish for Fernando Alonso at Spa, while Esteban Ocon crossed the line P7, Alpine strengthened their grip on P4 in the standings by moving 20 points clear of McLaren, who failed to score.

Lando Norris was not overly optimistic on McLaren’s chances at the Dutch Grand Prix, calling Zandvoort their worst track last season, though with the ever-impressive Brit at the wheel, it feels like a strong points haul is never far away for McLaren.

But, if they are to sustain the fight with Alpine, then the problem it seems is Daniel Ricciardo on the other side of the garage.

Now confirmed that he will leave McLaren at the end of 2022, there was hope that we would see an unshackled Ricciardo show up at Spa with nothing to lose as he chases a place on the 2023 grid.

Sadly there was zero sign of that, with ex-F1 driver turned pundit Martin Brundle accurate in saying that Ricciardo looked like a “broken man”. It is hard then to envisage a sudden improvement at Zandvoort.

Any Ricciardo woes are welcomed though by the pack behind, Alfa Romeo, Haas, AlphaTauri and Aston Martin all scrapping over the right to ultimately claim P6 in the standings.

Valtteri Bottas will be hoping to spend more time in the Dutch Grand Prix than he did racing in Belgium, the Alfa Romeo driver ending up beached in the gravel after a spin for Williams’ Nicholas Latifi on Lap 3.

For Williams, their rapid pace in a straight-line frustrated the midfield pack and allowed Alex Albon to snatch a point, but with Zandvoort more about tight and technical corners than long straights, Williams may be in for a tough time there.

Aston Martin still appear capable of doing their best work on race day, qualifying remaining an Achilles’ heel, which around Zandvoort could set Sebastian Vettel and Lance Stroll up for a rather difficult race.

Over at Haas, perhaps the most inconsistent team on the grid this season, Spa made it three races in succession without a point, neither Kevin Magnussen nor Mick Schumacher looking like a contender to score.

While points in Zandvoort cannot be ruled out, it is starting to seem like Haas’ more conservative approach to upgrades is catching up with them.