How Max Verstappen can beat Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri to the F1 title
Max Verstappen has forced himself into the title fight and this is how it could play out.
A once seemingly impossible title charge by Max Verstappen now seems very possible and we’ve crunched the numbers on the Championship showdown.
Lando Norris leads the way but he does so with one eye over his shoulder as an in-form Verstappen continues to close the gap.
How the F1 title race could play out
Following the first race after F1’s summer break at Zandvoort, leader Piastri had a 104-point lead over Verstappen and a 34-point gap to team-mate Lando Norris but both have been shrunk.
After the Mexican GP, Norris now leads Piastri by one point with Verstappen 26 points back but McLaren’s early switch of focus to 2026 coupled with an upgrade to the Red Bull car has given Verstappen the seemingly quickest car on the grid and there is now a real chance that he could haul in Norris.
When can Verstappen catch Piastri and Norris?
If everything went Verstappen’s way, then he could feasibly catch both McLaren drivers in the near future.
Should the Dutchman win every event and the McLaren pair fail to score a point, Verstappen would catch both of them by the end of the Las Vegas GP.
Realistically, McLaren are unlikely to score zero points between now and then which means the title fight will go on for longer.
The good news for Norris is that he can afford to not win a race again this year and still stay ahead of Verstappen. Should those two be one-two in every event to go, Norris would win the title by six points.
As for Verstappen, the maximum he can score is 437 points which means Norris cannot score more than 81 points or Piastri 82 if the Dutchman has a chance.
When can Oscar Piastri win the title?
While momentum is not with him, Piastri still has a great chance of winning the world title.
The gap to Norris is just one so he could be back on top as soon as the Brazil sprint. Mathmatically, the earliest Piastri could win the title is the Qatar sprint.
When can Lando Norris win the title?
With him leading the championship, the ball is Norris’ court as all he has to do is score more points than his two rivals every weekend.
Realistically, there is likely to be plenty of ups and downs left to go this season so it may not be as straightforward as that.
Like Piastri, the earliest Norris could win the title would be the Qatar sprint where he would need to score just 1 point to clinch it.
More on the title race from PlanetF1.com
? How Mexico exposed Max Verstappen’s title hopes as an illusion
? Piastri calls for pace analysis amidst McLaren conspiracy theories
? Max Verstappen gives fresh title chance verdict as gap narrows again
When can Max Verstappen win the title?
Verstappen’s form in recent races has made a fifth world title a legitimate possibility.
He has a 34-point gap between him and Norris meaning he needs to outscore the Briton by an average of 8.5 points per race weekend. He would also have to outscore Piastri by 8.25 points per race.
For context, in the last four races Verstappen has outscored Norris by an average of 7.25 points and Piastri by an average of 14.75, although that does include a DNF for the Australian.
Should Piastri and Norris fail to score any more points, Verstappen would have the title wrapped up by the end of the Qatar race.
Read next: Is Lando Norris in the box seat for the title? Brazil might hold the key
