Horner, Perez and Newey: How Red Bull’s title stranglehold came loose

If Red Bull go on to lose this year’s title, they cannot say there were no warning signs.

A dominating start to the year has been revealed as papering over several cracks and, with another team finally applying some pressure, they are becoming a fading force.

How Red Bull lost their lead in the F1 2024 title fight

For a team that started the season with back-to-back one-twos, Red Bull were powerless as they watched McLaren move past them in the Constructors’ following Oscar Piastri’s win in Baku. The first time in a decade McLaren have topped the standings and the first time since May 2022 that any other badge then two red bulls charging in front of a yellow sun has been on top.

Unlike with Mercedes’ downfall in 2022 which was a result of the regulation changes, Red Bull’s problems are more multifaceted – a death by a thousand cuts kind of approach – but where did it all go wrong?

A period of invincibility masked deeper problems

Speaking to Max Verstappen in Monaco after he just qualified sixth, his first non-pole of the year, he was clear that the RB20’s issues with riding over bumps was not something new to the Red Bull car and had been there even when they were winning.

“It’s not come as a surprise to me because I knew our limitations coming into this weekend,” he said. “It’s been bad. I can’t take any kerbs.

“It is a fundamental problem, so it is not something that will be fixed within weeks,”

“We need to understand what it is, because we clearly don’t understand it.

“But we will work hard to find the problem and then try to get rid of it. I don’t know if we can do it this year but hopefully for next year.”

This problem may well have been there for a few years – but who cares if you go over a bump a few tenths slower than your rivals when you will finish the grand prix 10 seconds ahead anyway?

When you have a car as dominant as the RB19 it is a huge blessing, but can also make it easy to switch off to the fine margins of performance. Look at Mercedes again, a win in Sao Paulo in 2022 convinced them to stick to a design that ultimately would never work for them.

Christian Horner said they stopped work on the RB19 at the summer break, not unusual for an F1 team, but they appear to have focused too much on redesigning the wheel than fixing fundamental flaws.

A full blown revolution rather than an evolution

Strip away the liveries and which car on the grid this year looks most like the RB19? The MCL38, not the RB20.

When Red Bull lifted the covers on their latest design, the world wondered what Adrian Newey had “cooked” but looking back now, the team admits they may have gone too far in one direction.

“If you look at McLaren,” Horner said in Monza. “It almost looks like an evolution of last year’s car, a much simpler car than ours. Perhaps we’ve gone a little too complex.”

Reversing a car’s development is never easy, just ask Aston Martin, especially when the base car was so different from the previous year’s and with a budget cap in place, it makes it even harder to spend your way out of trouble.

A controversy-led start to the year

The end result was his name cleared but even Horner will not deny that the investigation into him at the start of the season was damaging for the team.

Forgetting the brand for a moment, the effect it will have had on the team will have been significant considering Horner is the leader of the Red Bull Racing outfit. Horner himself admitted it was a “distraction” but he was determined to see it through despite pressure both internally and externally.

The investigation into Horner, which centred on an employee’s accusations of inappropriate behaviour, first came to light in February, just a few weeks before their car launch and soon damaging rumour after damaging rumour was being reported about Horner and the team.

While they proved to be unfounded, what was clear for everyone to see was Red Bull had split into two – team Horner and team Helmut Marko/Jos Verstappen.

The big bosses were called in with Red Bull’s sporting CEO Oliver Mintzlaff spotted in the paddock, as well as Horner’s meeting with majority owner Chalerm Yoovidhya. There was even talk that Verstappen was prepared to walk away should Marko be suspended.

In the end, nothing changed personnel wise. Horner was cleared of both the investigation and an appeal and Marko signed a new deal but the civil war that engulfed the team at the start of the new season was hardly an ideal way to begin a title defence.

Adrian Newey’s departure?

As to how much Newey’s departure has caused Red Bull’s current issues is up for debate. Horner was at pains to point out that the designer only stopped working with the racing team in Miami and even someone as good as Newey is not such an integral piece that the car falls to bits the moments he steps out the door.

But it is still hard to argue against his departure having had an effect.

Red Bull’s rise to the top in 2022 was in no small part to Newey, who happened to study ground effect for his thesis while at university, and even if there is no guarantee that Newey could solve their current problems, he is the person you would back more than anyone in the paddock to find a light at the end of the tunnel.

The Red Bull technical team is not bereft of talent as Pierre Waché and Paul Monaghan are both highly experienced and highly capable team members, but the loss of Newey will have had an impact both in terms of technical know-how and a leader figure.

Newey’s glitzy unveiling at Aston Martin last week, where he is being paid a small fortune and was even given part of the company to join, will have left a bitter taste in Red Bull’s mouths despite how closely they worked together for the past two decades.

Rivals improving all round them

Red Bull’s downfall has not been entirely self-inflicted. 2024, to the surprise of everyone, has actually been a very competitive season.

We have had seven different winners from four constructors, the top three in the Constructors’ standings are separated by 51 points and we are going into each race weekend genuinely unsure of who will win.

This means that Red Bull’s margin for error has been reduced dramatically and even the smallest of mistakes are being pounced on. Last year, if they lost a couple of seconds off their race time, they would have still won. This year, if they do that they could be out the top 10.

It also means that Verstappen in particular is having to drive the car on its very edge. Listen to the Dutchman of late and he will complain about balance, balance, balance. What he is saying is that the car is not giving him what he wants to feel comfortable to push it to its limits and it is a problem that has a big impact especially when it comes to quali.

Two major upgrade packages for McLaren, one in Miami and the other in Zandvoort, have propelled them to the front of the grid and put even more pressure on Red Bull.

More on the 2024 F1 season

F1 2024: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates

F1 2024: Head-to-head qualifying record between team-mates

The puzzling performance of Sergio Perez

When you are in a title fight, the last thing you can afford is a passenger. So far this year, Sergio Perez has scored 31% of the team’s points which is by far the lowest of any driver in the title contending teams.

It is not a new pattern for Perez, the closest he has ever been to Verstappen is 2022’s 149 points, but for the first time since they have been team-mates, Verstappen has been unable to pick up the pieces dropped by Perez.

Belgium was the perfect example of Red Bull needing Perez to step up given Verstappen’s engine grid penalty and still he finished behind the Dutchman. Even in Baku, a costly crash meant Perez has still not finished ahead of Verstappen on track once this season.

Perez’s future has also been the subject of intense scrutiny. A two-year contract extension in June was questioned even while the ink was wet and those questions only got louder as his poor results continued.

Horner has hinted the pressure is getting to Perez, saying they “thought the contract would help” but three races after the summer break and his stay next year is still just as uncertain.

A summer break meeting between Marko and Horner gave Perez a stay of execution but the Mexican has not finished in the top five since Miami, not on the podium since China. It’s been 506 days since his last win.

Had Daniel Ricciardo performed better this year, then we may well have seen Perez already out of the seat, but the fact is that Perez’s underwhelming year has left Red Bull very vulnerable.

Max Verstappen and Mercedes

12 months ago, a move away for Verstappen would have seemed impossible. He was deep into the 2023 season, a year in which he obliterated all the competition and Red Bull’s time at the top looked like it would go on for a long while yet.

But how quickly things change.

A move for Verstappen to Mercedes still seems unlikely, but not completely out of the question, and the fact the Silver Arrows gave Kimi Antonelli a contract for just the one year initially suggests even Toto Wolff believes it could be possible.

Is it a move that will happen? Probably not but it is another aspect for the Red Bull hierarchy to worry about.

A perfect storm of problems

Ultimately, the problem that needs fixing first is the car, for a quick car makes the other problems seem a little more manageable.

The main issue is balance but with another race this weekend, it is unlikely they will be able to solve that problem at a track that really struggled with last season.

The unusual autumn break represents a lifeline for the team but with Marko already admitting the title is lost, Red Bull face a mighty uphill battle to stop a rampaging McLaren.

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