Why the ‘Max Verstappen effect’ was not enough to beat McLaren in Aus GP qualifying

Lando Norris has taken pole position for the opening race of the 2025 Formula 1 season in Australia.

The McLaren driver surpassed team-mate Oscar Piastri and clearly beat Max Verstappen who could do nothing behind the wheel to battle against the papaya-coloured cars.

F1 data shows where the ‘Max Verstappen effect’ was not enough to topple McLaren

While in the 2024 season Verstappen, despite having an inferior car, could fight toe-to-toe, qualifying in Melbourne has shown that in 2025 it could be a very different story.

The Max Verstappen ‘effect’ is still tangible to the eye and to the timesheets, where it is more valuable. We just have to look at where Liam Lawson finished… only just ahead of both Haas drivers.

And while it’s obviously too early to judge, it looks like the Dutch driver’s new team-mate is going to suffer a lot at least during the first races. Just like the reigning World Champion who will need a better weapon to fight with if he wants to defend his crown.

Analysis from Australian Grand Prix qualifying

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The telemetry and qualifying data are very clear. Verstappen is able to ‘tame’ his own car with some ease, but this ‘battle’ with a car that like the RB20 is still complicated to balance as has been proven throughout the weekend so far, makes him arrive at the end of the lap with very overheated tyres.

This makes it impossible for him to find a good grip in the final moments. And, in order to have an advantage over the papaya cars, Red Bull is still in the habit of using a lower downforce setting, suffering especially in slow corners, but with good performance at medium and high speed corners. Relying too on Max’s hands.

What seems clear is that McLaren is on another level. And only Verstappen is capable of putting them in a bit of a spot of bother perhaps on circuits more favourable to the RB21.

Red Bull has only won twice at Albert Park: in 2011 with Sebastian Vettel and in 2023 with Verstappen himself.

And as this chart shows, Mercedes did indeed have more pace than Red Bull in qualifying. However, George Russell failed to put together a perfect lap in Q3 to be ahead of Verstappen. But the W16 had the performance to do it.

Ferrari disappeared from the equation, with Lewis Hamilton using a very high downforce set-up to find comfort in the SF-25… And also perhaps thinking ahead to the rain expected on Sunday, where he will need an extra bit of comfort to feel confident in wet conditions, having never driven a lap in the wet for Ferrari before.

But as we can see in the following table, he has not found the sweet spot yet. The British driver couldn’t put together an ideal lap to at least beat a great Yuki Tsunoda with a very surprising Racing Bulls. Charles Leclerc also had nothing to do against the VCARB 02.

In the fight for pole position, Norris was again one step ahead of Piastri. The British driver with a slightly less aerodynamically loaded set-up managed to beat the local hero in almost all areas of the circuit.

Only in Sector 2, more precisely in Turns 6 and 7 as we can see in the telemetry, Piastri was able to get a small advantage over Norris, which was not enough to get pole position.

Tomorrow’s race promises to be a great opportunity for McLaren to start the season with a double podium finish. The high probability of rain, however, may mean that the papaya team’s superiority in dry conditions may be minimised.

The midfield battle is likely to be one of the hot spots of Sunday’s action. With Racing Bulls and Williams very strong in qualifying, will Alpine also be able to make a step up in race pace? The fight for points will be interesting.

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