Revealed: What F1 temperature data says about Mercedes and McLaren

The F1 2024 season has delivered incredible excitement and an unprecedented number of multiple race winners in a single year.

And this diversity has revealed some very intriguing data regarding the performance of certain teams under specific conditions.

How track temperature can shape F1 performance

The image above shows track temperatures and their corresponding winners. At first glance, we can observe certain recurring rules. It’s evident that some teams perform better in cooler conditions, while others excel in warmer ones. But the real question is: why?

Let’s explore this phenomenon and uncover the reasons behind it.

What factors can affect tyre grip?

Several factors influence tyre performance on the track, which engineers must account for to provide drivers with the best possible conditions for a race.

The mechanism that enables friction between tyres and the surface involves the asymmetric deformation of the tyre and the action of viscoelastic forces.

This mechanism can be divided into two categories: excitation of the tyre due to physical irregularities in the surface and the formation of molecular bonds between the tyre and the track surface—in our case, asphalt.

Although it’s not always visible to the naked eye, the type of asphalt significantly impacts tyre behaviour and grip levels. Engineers meticulously analyse the micro and macro characteristics of the surface, enabling them to calculate and predict the level of grip for a specific tyre compound. However, as we’ve seen, the temperature of the asphalt during a race also has a major impact – but why?

Formula 1 tyres are completely different from the ones used on everyday vehicles. The materials used in their construction are tailored to either extend lifespan or enhance performance, depending on the requirements. In Formula 1, the goal is maximum performance (i.e., grip), which comes at the cost of a very short lifespan. In contrast, tyres on road cars prioritise longevity over peak performance.

To achieve maximum grip from Formula 1 tyres, they must operate within a specific temperature window where they perform best. If the tyre is too cold, it won’t generate the desired grip level, whereas an overheated tyre will wear out faster, losing its performance.

This is the primary challenge engineers face during a race: maintaining tyre temperatures as precisely and consistently as possible within this optimal window. When this condition is met, the aforementioned mechanisms function at their most efficient, giving the driver exactly what they need on track.

The track temperature significantly affects tyre temperatures, either helping or hindering the effort to stay within the optimal window.

However, another crucial factor must be added to the equation: the characteristics of the car itself, which influence how quickly and efficiently the tyres heat up. These mechanisms are highly complex and involve numerous variables, but the most important include the level of downforce generated by the car and the suspension system, which transfers this force to the tyres.

For example, a car with higher front-axle downforce will heat its front tyres more quickly but is also likely to wear them out faster. Additionally, factors such as aerodynamic balance and driving style play a significant role.

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A cool Mercedes and a hot McLaren

As we’ve seen, there are many factors at play. Despite this complexity, certain patterns have emerged throughout the 2024 season. The graph clearly shows that some teams perform better in cooler conditions, while others excel in warmer weather. But why is this the case?

One of the ‘rules’ has been set by Mercedes, which has shown exceptional speed in cooler conditions. Take, for example, the Las Vegas Grand Prix, the coldest race of the season, where Russell led the entire race and Hamilton climbed from P10 to P2 with ease. Excluding their victory in Austria, which came under unusual circumstances, the average track temperature during Mercedes’ wins was 17.3°C (63°F), which is significantly lower than the overall average.

One potential explanation for this is the W15’s ability to heat its tyres more quickly, with cooler track temperatures helping maintain them in the optimal temperature window for longer.

In these moments, the W15 transforms into a dominant car that looks almost unstoppable. Both last year’s and this year’s Mercedes cars have performed exceptionally well on twisty circuits requiring high levels of downforce. Additionally, the W15 has benefited from smooth track surfaces, which allowed engineers to stiffen the suspension and position the car’s floor in its most efficient aerodynamic state.

Another factor might be the engine cooling system, which could potentially operate more effectively in cooler temperatures. All these elements combined likely contributed to Mercedes’ strong form in cold weather.

On the other hand, McLaren tells a different story. Like Mercedes, they perform well on high-downforce tracks where technical precision is crucial. However, if we revisit the graph, we can see that the MCL38 performs better in warmer conditions. Both McLaren drivers stood on the podium during two of the season’s three hottest races – Singapore and Hungary.

It’s clear that generating high downforce alone is not enough to heat tyres quickly. Numerous factors are at play, with suspension settings and aerodynamic balance being among the most important.

An interesting theory is the effect of air density on a car’s aerodynamics. Warmer air has a lower density, reducing the forces generated by aerodynamic components. McLaren has struggled with straight-line speed this season, largely due to higher aerodynamic drag. We could hypothesise that the thinner, warmer air penalises the MCL38’s drag less compared to cooler conditions.

Of course, these are just assumptions, and without access to the teams’ data, it’s impossible to draw definitive conclusions.

However, it’s fascinating to see how seemingly small differences in conditions can dramatically change a car’s performance. This highlights the incredible level of technology in Formula 1, which operates at an astonishingly advanced level.

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