Dutch Grand Prix data: The big Mercedes W15 question as Zandvoort strategy headache looms
George Russell set the pace in FP2 at Zandvoort, but did track conditions flatter the Mercedes W15?
The F1 2024 season is back in action after the summer break with practice for the Dutch Grand Prix taking place at Zandvoort on Friday.
A fascinating Friday of on-track action gave us a very good indication of how close the rest of the weekend could be in qualifying and the race with Mercedes and McLaren in a great position. Although we don’t know a lot of data such as the fuel load of each car and the engine map selected, the data from Friday’s FP2 at the Dutch GP gives us a bigger picture of how the weekend might unfold.
Dutch Grand Prix 2024 practice: F1 data analysis
Mercedes the fastest team on a single lap… or not?
George Russell set the fastest FP2 time ahead of Oscar Piastri by just 0.061 seconds. The Mercedes W15 was particularly strong in Sector 2, but there is an important point to note.
Both Max Verstappen and McLaren did their flying lap on a greener and cooler track minutes before Russell and team-mate Lewis Hamilton carried out theirs.
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Therefore, the Mercedes drivers were in slightly better track conditions, which probably allowed them to have a bit more traction in the fast corners, as the telemetry shows.
As we can see in the fast Turn 7, the W15 has a clearly superior corner exit than the McLaren and a higher performance in the twisty Sector 2.
Even so, the MCL38 seemingly manages to reach the final sector with cooler tyres and that has allowed Piastri to have a great run through the banked final corner and more traction at the exit before the main straight.
Red Bull seems to be hiding their cards or are simply not as comfortable as in previous years at Zandvoort.
Despite its good straight line performance, the RB20 struggled to keep up with McLaren and Mercedes in Sector 2, where there is a mix of fast and slow corners.
McLaren and Max Verstappen the most solid on the long runs
Despite not finding the one-lap pace, Verstappen seems to have good race pace.
Although the average lap times say otherwise, if we look at the evolution of his laps with the medium tyre we can see that Max has been going from more to less time per lap.
In other words, he had more pace than he showed – or he ran with more fuel than his rivals.
Lando Norris’ run was also particularly positive with very consistent lap times, significantly better than those of Oscar Piastri, Hamilton and Verstappen.
Norris may have been running with less fuel or a more aggressive engine map, but even so McLaren’s pace is really good. It seems that all four performance upgrades are working on the MCL38.
On the soft tyre, Verstappen was the fastest driver in terms of average time. Norris has very similar times to the Red Bull driver.
Ferrari are still lost and with mechanical problems
Ferrari are slipping away from the leading group where McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull stand out. The Italian team are still fourth at the moment, but the gap seems to be getting bigger and bigger.
Charles Leclerc had to abort his first flying lap attempt with the soft tyre and set his time on used rubber and was only P9, more than 0.7s behind George Russell. Carlos Sainz was barely able to run on track due to gearbox problems.
Undoubtedly a difficult Friday for Ferrari who has to turn the situation around before tomorrow’s qualifying. They will have the FP3 to get more representative running.
The risk of rain in qualifying could be key
After a wet and windy FP1, FP2 gave us more valuable running time, even though wind gusts of 19 km/h were maintained.
Although the race is expected to be dry, there is a slight chance of rain for qualifying on Saturday.
In fact, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute has issued a yellow warning for thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon after qualifying.
Even so, there is approximately a 30 per cent chance of rain for qualifying and a chance of light showers before qualifying.
Who does this situation favour? Certainly Verstappen if indeed Red Bull is having problems in Sector 2 over McLaren and Red Bull.
It would be somewhat beneficial for Ferrari.
A new race strategy is on the engineers’ minds
The Dutch Grand Prix is normally a two-stop race.
However, this year the pit lane has increased in size with the inclusion of six more garages, which directly makes pit stops much costly due to more time lost in the pit lane.
Moreover, as we have already seen recently in Hungary with the difficulty to overtake on track and even in Belgium with Russell, who achieved an epic victory with a one-stopper (although he was later disqualified for not reaching the minimum weight), the one-stopper can be a great option.
The teams will have to see with their data if it is a feasible option, if the loss of time on track – taking into account the difficulty of overtaking – is profitable versus a second stop with a greater loss of time in the pits.
With thunderstorms forecast for Saturday, we will probably have a very green track on Sunday and graining will also be a concern.