Azerbaijan GP predictions: Leclerc to lose out, where Norris may recover to and more

Pablo Hidalgo 15 Sep 2024 8:50 AM

Charles Leclerc up close as he laps the Baku circuit

After an entertaining qualifying at the Azerbaijan GP with the surprising elimination of Lando Norris in Q1 and the now customary Baku pole position for Charles Leclerc, a race with a lot of uncertainty beckons, accompanied with the high possibility of Safety Car and/or red flag deployment.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Azerbaijan GP. And we encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well!

Race predictions: 2024 Azerbaijan GP

10. Franco Colapinto

Williams is having a great weekend and Franco Colapinto was the surprise qualifier in Baku. Logan Sargeant’s replacement at the Grove team for the remainder of the 2024 season has done what the American driver couldn’t do in a year and a half: beat Alex Albon in qualifying!

After also completing a great debut at Monza, Colapinto is proving that he has the pace to be an official Formula 1 driver and not just an interim replacement. Today he has the great opportunity to score his first point as a Formula 1 driver starting from P9.

9. Fernando Alonso

The Spanish driver always manages to put his car in a place where it shouldn’t really be. Beating Haas and Williams in qualifying and only +0.080s behind Lewis Hamilton, the Aston Martin driver will have to have another epic race as he did in Monza to keep the AMR24 in the points.

It will be difficult to hold off his rivals for 51 laps in a car that often reduces its potential during race days, but if anyone can do it, it’s him. He will start the race in P8 and will surely be the protagonist of many battles on track with such a tight midfield.

8. Lando Norris

In a race with no surprises and no external factors that could alter the race, P8 is the maximum Lando is aiming for, starting from P16 on the grid. Even if he does a different strategy to all his rivals, the gap is too big to aim for anything more, even with the possibility of overtaking on the long straight.

Lando will probably have to start on the hard tyre to extend his first stint as long as possible and hope that a Safety Car or a red flag will bring him luck and options to get a better result than a P8 in Baku.

7. Lewis Hamilton

This was written before Lewis Hamilton’s pit-lane start was confirmed

Lewis is going completely unnoticed this weekend. Beaten again in qualifying by George Russell, it doesn’t look like it will be a great weekend for the seven-time World Champion. He will start 7th and ahead of him he has rivals who in the first instance will have more race pace than him.

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6. George Russell

The Mercedes driver put in a great qualifying performance and finished P5, with P3 just a few hundredths of a second out of his reach.

Behind him will be Max Verstappen and ahead of drivers whose cars have been slightly more competitive this weekend.

5. Sergio Perez

The ‘king’ of Baku beat his team-mate in qualifying for the first time this season. He is also the only driver to have achieved more than one win at this circuit.

However, we think Red Bull will be keen for Max to take maximum points from Lando Norris in this race. McLaren has been stronger for some time now and the threat in the World Championship is real. Any help for Max will be good and welcome for the Dutch driver.

4. Max Verstappen

After several difficult races, Azerbaijan doesn’t look like it’s going to be a cakewalk for him either. But in the quest for his fourth world title, with Lando Norris starting P16, finishing P4 could be a tough blow for his rival.

He will start the race P6 after being outqualified by Sergio Perez and overtaken by George Russell. But in the race, Max should have an advantage over George and his teammate. And if he doesn’t, Red Bull should give him a little help.

3. Carlos Sainz

Good weekend for the Spanish driver. Despite being behind Charles Leclerc, he is living up to expectations. His pace in the race is good and the pace of the Ferrari is good. He will start 3rd and a podium would be a great result for him in Baku.

2. Charles Leclerc

Charles is the man to beat in the Azerbaijan race. Ferrari has shown great pace all weekend, but Leclerc’s curse in Baku is a reality.

This is his fourth pole position on the Azerbaijan street circuit and in the last three he has failed to win. It is true that this time the SF24 does look a superior car than in other years and with such a tight pack, he is the big favourite. But… there is someone who has to make a statement in this race.

1. Oscar Piastri

Statement made for Oscar Piastri? He will start P2 and no doubt he will give everything to get the victory in Azerbaijan. After much talk about the ‘papaya rules’ that McLaren finally changed for this race, the Australian driver has an incredible opportunity to mark his territory and prove that he can even beat Lando Norris in the standings this season.

McLaren has to be smart and not make the strategy mistakes of Italy if they really want to get the win in Baku. It’s their turn to have a rematch from the pit wall against Ferrari.