Ralf Schumacher warns Ferrari may not catch Mercedes despite major Miami upgrade push

Ferrari’s hopes of closing the gap to Mercedes may already be fading, according to Ralf Schumacher, as the fight looks set to shift to McLaren for second place.

Mercedes has been the team to beat this season, with the Brackley squad’s engine winning every one of the three grands prix to date and the Sprint in China.

Ralf Schumacher doubts Ferrari can catch Mercedes in 2026

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Mercedes W17 and its HPP engine has been the pick of the field at the start of this season, with George Russell winning in Australia before Kimi Antonelli claimed back-to-back P1s in China and Japan.

Although Ferrari has put up a fight in the opening laps, thanks to the SF-26’s smaller turbo and epic starts, neither Charles Leclerc nor Lewis Hamilton has been able to keep pace with the front-running Mercedes driver through to the chequered flag.

It has meant Mercedes has romped to three successive grand prix wins, and victory in the Chinese Sprint, while Ferrari has just three third-place finishes.

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Even in Japan, when McLaren proved more competitive, Ferrari could only manage third with Charles Leclerc, with Oscar Piastri on the podium in second place.

Ferrari is, like many of its rivals, set to introduce a big upgrade on the chassis side at the Miami Grand Prix.

Described as a “package and a half” by team principal Fred Vasseur, what it really needs is to close the engine performance gap to Mercedes.

That could be partially negated as the FIA and Formula 1 are discussing Miami’s place in what should’ve been a 24-race calendar that has since been reduced to 22 races.

Miami was set to be round six, after which the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) programme would kick in. But, after Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were cancelled, there’s some debate.

The ADUO programme is designed to address performance gaps in the power units by allowing those lagging behind additional development opportunities to ensure a more level playing field.

Nikolas Tombazis, the director of the FIA Single-Seater Technical Department, explained: “Every five to six races, the average performance of each power unit manufacturer will be measured.

“Those who fall below a certain performance threshold, depending on how far behind they are, will receive a benefit that will accumulate over the course of the season.”

Now the fourth round of the championship, Miami could still mark the first ADUO marker given it was initially scheduled as round six before Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were cancelled.

That could prove a key moment, in Ralf Schumacher’s opinion, with the potential to have a big impact on Ferrari’s season.

“It’s down to the update now,” he told Sky Deutschland’s podcast of Ferrari’s chances of catching Mercedes.

“We’re assuming there’ll be a massive update by the Miami Grand Prix at the latest.

“I reckon that Fred Vasseur has it pretty well under control now. You can see the car’s handling well, so in that respect it’s a very good chassis, isn’t it? Obviously well-built too.

“I don’t think it’s possible [to catch Mercedes] anymore.”

Instead, the former F1 driver reckons it is Ferrari versus McLaren for second in F1 2026.

“I also think that the McLaren still has too much downforce due to its aerodynamic concept, so it’s not efficient enough for the current engine regulations.

“That was masked a bit at Suzuka, because of course that Esses section – the first sector – you need a lot of aerodynamics there, and the McLaren was strong there, but that’s going to be a real problem here and there.”

Mercedes leads the Constructors’ Championship on 135 points, 45 ahead of Ferrari and a further 44 ahead of McLaren.

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