How Mexico exposed Max Verstappen’s title hopes as an illusion
Max Verstappen
Just a week ago, in the afterglow of his victory in the United States Grand Prix, Max Verstappen was regarded by some as the favourite to win the F1 2025 season.
Not so much now after Lando Norris’s crushing victory for McLaren in Mexico. Far from a Red Bull revival, then, perhaps Verstappen’s recent results have flattered the RB21…
Mexican GP a reality check for Max Verstappen and Red Bull?
A version of this article originally appeared in PlanetF1.com’s conclusions from the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix
He couldn’t, could he?
Actually, maybe he can’t.
Maybe this might be beyond him after all.
Maybe even the great Max Verstappen at his most inspired cannot coax a fifth straight championship out of this Red Bull.
And maybe, for all the talk of a technical breakthrough with the RB21 over recent races, the team is still a little too reliant on Verstappen for its own good almost 18 months after its initial slump started.
Certainly, the onboard footage of Verstappen in qualifying in Mexico – fighting to stop the rear from snapping every single time he went through the esses, ending up fifth on the grid and 0.5s down on Lando Norris’s lap for pole position – put his recent victories into a little more context.
Max Verstappen vs Yuki Tsunoda: Red Bull Racing head-to-head scores for F1 2025
? F1 2025: Head-to-head qualifying statistics between team-mates
? F1 2025: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates
If Monza really was what it looked like – a glorious flash of the Max and Red Bull of 2023 – Baku owed everything to Verstappen’s natural touch and feel in the slippery conditions of qualifying.
As noted by this column at the time, nobody out there is better equipped than Max to face the variables – the drizzle, the wind, the cold temperatures – that confronted the drivers that afternoon.
And once Verstappen secured pole with two midfield cars right behind him on the grid, and once the McLaren drivers both underperformed so dramatically, the door was left wide open for one of the most dominant wins of the season.
Austin, you say?
What, the weekend it seemed for all the world like Verstappen was coming quick at McLaren and there was nothing Norris and Oscar Piastri could do about it?
That one? A couple of overhanging questions from that race.
One: what if Norris and Piastri hadn’t collided at the start of the sprint and, denying the team crucial data, seemingly forced McLaren to take an ultra-safe setup choice at a notoriously bumpy circuit where disqualifications for ride-height issues have occurred previously?
And two: what if Norris hadn’t fallen behind Charles Leclerc at the start of the main race and condemned himself to running at the Ferrari’s pace almost throughout?
In other words, if Lando had given himself a free run at Max, could he have drilled home the McLaren’s famous advantage of thermal degradation on a hot Texas Sunday?
Would Verstappen have stood a chance of containing him in that scenario?
A 31-second deficit to Norris in Mexico, another hot race on a low-grip surface, seemed to provide the answer.
More on Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing from PlanetF1.com
The headline figure of three wins from the previous four races may have pointed to a late-season title charge by Verstappen.
Yet such a muted performance compared to the McLaren in Mexico, a circuit where the Red Bull has historically been a good car even when it was bad, has brought a bit of reality back to the conversation.
Maybe Max really will be powerless to prevent a McLaren championship double.
Maybe he has been flattering the RB21 with his recent performances.
And maybe his title hopes are exactly what Norris’s were this time a year ago: an illusion.
Reader reaction: Where Max Verstappen stands after Mexico
Citrus Fruits: The greatest comeback ever in F1 history….just died. Even with the help of the Stewards by not penalizing him he lost to Lando. ??
f1oldergenfanny: Max is the winner on the WDC in Mexico, he gained 4 points on whoever the WDC leader is from 40 to 36 points.
R Legault: Only four races left. 36 points is a mountain to climb. I will be happy if he succeeds, but the RBR does not seems to have the car that can follow the pace.
Roger Valve: Conclusion fia and stewards biased again. I agree Hamilton penalty but max should have received one or two as well.
Marco Andrea: Mr Norris was untouchable this weekend, massive win! And it seems Oscar is dithering under championship pressure from his team-mate. The booing was unjust for Lando them lot should stick to wrestling. Max is still very much in the championship, can’t wait for Brazil.
Jack Willet: The man with the lion on his helmet is shaking… because the actual Lion is coming. Go Lando.
Jmwjr7: Or, it could be that McLaren has such good aero characteristics that the peculiarities of the Mexican circuit impacted it less than it did Red Bull.
I think Max has too much ground to make up for this year’s WDC but is currently is not being out performed as a driver by anyone. Lando had a similar performance at Zandvoort in 24 which didn’t foretell much for the remainder of that season, as I recall.
Alan: McLaren still have the best car, Max’s talent coupled with a bit of luck flattered Red Bull over the last few races.
Lando is a top driver but if he was as good as people seem to think he is performances like Mexico would be the norm, not the exception.
George Bascomb (in reply to Alan): Yeah, Lando or Piastri will likely win the WDC, but I think it is clear to everyone that Max has proven to be the best driver of 2025.
Roam: Great drive from Max again, closed the points gap to first but needs to beat Norris every race realistically to get the title.
Read next: How Lewis Hamilton’s telemetry data justifies Mexican GP penalty
