Pace and pressure: The curious case of Piastri and Verstappen’s qualifying woes

What was supposed to be a continuation of a close fight between the three main title contenders turned into a one-man show when Lando Norris convincingly took pole position.

On the other hand, it was an unexpectedly poor qualifying session for Verstappen, who finished P5, and Piastri, who ended up P8. So what exactly happened in Mexico, and why did these two drivers fail to challenge Norris for pole?

A decisive blow in the title race?

Although these two find themselves in very different situations, Max is the one chasing the McLaren drivers, while Oscar is the one being chased, every point in a race weekend is worth gold. That makes it slightly surprising to see such clear gaps in qualifying between drivers who are fighting each other for the championship.

The biggest loser was undoubtedly Piastri, who looked unsettled from the very start of the weekend. In every free practice session, his gap to his team-mate was far from small (not counting FP1, in which Norris did not participate).

Lando is the type of driver for whom this circuit, especially its slow corners, suits perfectly. But even with that in mind, the gap between the two was simply too large.

Analysing their fastest qualifying laps reveals a very similar pattern to the one we saw during practice.

The Briton built a noticeable gap already through the opening corners, more precisely in Turn 2, where he managed to hold a much higher apex speed. This gave him a significant boost down the straight between Turn 3 and Turn 4, where he gained more than two tenths.

Piastri braked better into Turn 4 and managed to close the gap for a moment, but not for long. Actually, comparing Norris’s lap with other drivers’ laps shows that the same story repeats itself in this part of the circuit.

Lando brakes earlier at Turn 4, which costs him a bit of time through there and Turn 5, but allows him to be faster through Turn 6 — a crucial corner on this track. As a result, the gap between Norris and Piastri after Turn 6 was again more than two tenths.

The difference grew further through the fast Turns 8 and 9, suggesting the Briton had more confidence and a more stable front end. At this point, the delta reached half a second. Despite Oscar’s better run through Turn 12, Lando extended his advantage through the stadium section, finishing the lap 0.588 seconds ahead.

The fact that Piastri managed to combine his best sectors into one lap tells us that he simply struggles on low-grip circuits — just as he did in Texas, which has similar characteristics.

More from qualifying for the Mexico City GP

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? F1 starting grid: What is the grid order for the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix?

Predicting what to expect from him in the race is difficult. Judging by FP2 long-run times, Piastri does not appear to be in the best position. During race simulations, he was on average 0.17 seconds per lap slower than his team-mate, which is not ideal on a track where overtaking is notoriously difficult.

Another key factor will be the dirty air Piastri will be driving in, which will make it harder for him to get the most out of the car. The race in the United States is a good example: Oscar spent the entire Grand Prix in the dirty air of Lewis Hamilton without a single real chance to overtake.

On the other side of the story is Verstappen, for whom this was the first slip in an otherwise dominant run over the last few races — a moment that has brought the title fight back to life.

After FP2 it seemed that Red Bull Racing had excellent qualifying pace, although they were behind in race pace. But qualifying showed that even the first part of that assumption was shaky.

Analysing his flying lap reveals the mistake that cost him dearly. The first sector and the start of the middle sector looked almost identical to Piastri’s. Norris made a bigger gain already in Turn 2, but that advantage was reduced by the Briton’s earlier braking into Turn 4.

The key moment came on the exit of Turn 7 when, on throttle application, Max lost grip on the rear tyres, causing a small but costly oversteer moment. This likely cost him one or two tenths. It was the same error that plagued him throughout the weekend, and it seems he and the team couldn’t find an effective solution.

Even if the mistake hadn’t happened, Norris would still have been faster — mainly thanks to his outstanding third sector — but Verstappen could have secured a better starting position.

The first and even the second row still leave a chance for overtaking into Turn 1, which is quite far from the start–finish line. In the past, we’ve seen drivers emerge from Turn 1 in the lead even from fourth on the grid. From P5, however, those chances are much smaller.

Still, if we’ve learned anything by now, it’s that you should never count out a four-time world champion. The mistake in the high-speed corners means that Max and his team will certainly work overnight to find a fix that will allow him to stay in the title fight.

Whether Verstappen and Piastri will be able to make up positions remains to be seen during the race — a race that promises to be very exciting.

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