Has Max Verstappen already made up his mind about his Red Bull F1 future?

The rumour mill surrounding Max Verstappen’s future shot into overdrive before Silverstone, but the indications are that the four-time F1 World Champion will remain with Red Bull in 2026.

A few hours after Max Verstappen had broken the hearts of many British fans in the Silverstone grandstands as he snatched away what had seemed an impossible pole position from the local heroes, the Dutch driver slipped quietly and quickly out of the paddock.

The aftermath of Max Verstappen’s Silverstone pole

Moving quickly so as to not to be swamped by as few of the remaining stragglers as possible, Verstappen was accompanied by two of the most important men in his life; two men who haven’t seen eye-to-eye on everything over the past 18 months or so.

To his left was his father, Jos, and to his right, his team boss, Christian Horner. Jos has been a less frequent visitor to the F1 paddock this year, having found a new focus away from his son’s career as he builds up an impressive second wind as a rally driver on the European scene.

The three chatted animatedly as they scurried towards the paddock turnstiles, all smiles and cheerfulness after Verstappen had produced one of those ‘performance of a lifetime’ laps that he so regularly produces.

There’s no doubt that this is a tougher season than Red Bull might have anticipated pre-season. The RB21 has proven a sporadic performer, even in Verstappen’s hands, and the disappearance of any sort of support from the second driver has left the Dutch driver fighting one-handed against a relentless and equitable driver pairing at McLaren.

But, even against such a formidable force, Verstappen has shown his class on several occasions this year; a force that simply refuses to back down, and the reason why the McLaren duo can’t yet fully relax into an intra-team dynamic in their quest for the crown.

“Naturally, I think if you look at our season so far, we haven’t performed the way we wanted to,” Verstappen said after taking a pole position in which the hard work was done in the first two sectors.

“But that’s how it is. I cannot change that. We are pushing all flat out, myself, the whole team, to try and be more competitive. Some tracks naturally are a bit better for us, unfortunately.

“The calendar is not all like this, so we need to try to improve in other areas. It’s not that straightforward. Otherwise, of course, we would have done so already. But at least I’m happy with today. It’s a good boost for everyone, also after last weekend, which I think we were lacking a bit of pace, but also we were a bit unlucky in general.”

In isolation, the Silverstone pole position won’t do much to stem the tide of McLaren’s overall superiority at present, but the happiness of the moment allowed for some respite from the noise that has surrounded Verstappen and his camp in recent weeks, and even allowed for a moment of peace between Jos and Christian as they were united by the magic the younger Dutchman had achieved.

It was all a far cry from Max’s face on Thursday, when pictures from his media session emerged showing a clearly fed-up Verstappen facing a mass of journalists, including PlanetF1.com, to be hit with a barrage of questions about his future with the team.

Why are rumours about Max Verstappen’s future circulating?

Ever since the peace and harmony of the dominant 2023 season came to a crashing end in the early part of 2024, Verstappen has been strongly linked with a switch to, seemingly, any other leading team that will have him.

There’s no doubt that Verstappen is the hottest property in Formula 1, by a country mile, and the existence of a contract that sees him bound to Red Bull until, at least 2028, doesn’t mean that other teams won’t try and capitalise on any moments of perceived weaknesses in the relationship between Verstappen and Red Bull.

Over the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Verstappen was strongly rumoured to be the target of a hugely lucrative contract offer from Aston Martin, which was quickly brushed aside as speculative, as Aston Martin pointed to the existence of long-standing contracts with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll.

On paper, such a move would make sense to some degree – Verstappen would be reunited with the Honda engines with which he’s won all his titles, and with Adrian Newey, the architect of all his championship-winning cars. But, while the ingredients are there, the team is yet to prove itself as a winning entity in its current guise, and some sources have suggested that Verstappen may not be as eager to reunite with Newey as a colleague as one might expect.

Mercedes, on the other hand, has made a lot of sense as a valid proposition. A proven dominant force in the past, the shake-up of the engine rules, which could potentially play directly into the hands of the expertise of the team’s High-Performance Powertrains division, and the possibility to lead a new era at another behemoth outfit; what’s not to like?

Where do Mercedes feature in this uncertainty?

Fuelling this further is the fact that neither Mercedes driver, both of whom are products of the Mercedes junior programme, has been confirmed for next season just yet, and team boss Toto Wolff said in Austria that a decision won’t be made until around the summer break.

“I don’t want to be sadistic in letting a driver wait or not taking any decisions when it should be taken. So I feel we’re in a good space,” he said.

“Obviously, there are lots of discussions around. I’ve been open with it and transparent. And at a certain stage in the next couple of months, until the summer break, we need to know. Until the summer break, everything is going to be done.”

Pushed on whether that meant before or after the summer break, Wolff smiled: “Maybe in the middle.”

Coincidentally, this would line up with making this decision shortly after Verstappen’s performance contract clause could be activated; it’s believed that the Dutch driver can be free to activate his performance-based exit clause, if desired, if he’s outside the top four after the Hungarian Grand Prix just before the summer break.

Alternatively, there’s also the suggestion that Verstappen could simply buy his way out of his contract, with Sky Sports News‘ Craig Slater reporting this as potentially being around the £100 million mark.

Wolff also directly addressed the Verstappen possibility, saying on his current line-up, “The situation we have with Kimi [Antonelli] and George, we have a perfect line-up that we very much enjoy, that we believe is the future.

“But at the same time, there is a four-time World Champion that needs to decide what he’s going to do in the future, and that is just, as a team principal, you need to see where that is going.

“But I think I give it a very little probability that this is going to happen.”

This week, claims out of Italy suggested Verstappen to Mercedes was solidifying, kick-starting a fresh wave of speculation, following on from the team’s difficult weekend at the Austrian Grand Prix, while others claimed the four-time F1 World Champion was seeking to have Horner’s powers reduced – or even removed – in order to remain with the team.

This was why Verstappen’s media session pictures on Thursday bore a striking similarity to a renaissance painting, with the Dutch driver hit by relentless questions on topics he clearly had no particular interest in engaging.

Later the same day, George Russell spoke about the speculation surrounding his own position and was asked whether he finds it unfair to be at the centre of the rumours as he awaits his contract extension.

“Of course, there are lots of conversations, lots of rumours, and all of these are being pointed towards me,” he said.

“But from my side, that isn’t really going to be the case. I want to continue with Mercedes into the future. The fact is, Toto has never let me down. He’s always given me his word, but he’s also got to do what’s right for his team, which includes me.

“But it also includes the thousands of people who work for Mercedes. For me, it’s nothing to worry about because I don’t think I’ll be going anywhere. And whoever my teammate will be, it doesn’t concern me either. So, just focus on the driving.”

With Kimi Antonelli performing as expected as a rookie with huge potential, it’s unlikely the Italian, who Wolff seems to almost treat in paternal fashion, is on the chopping block. That puts the pressure on Russell for no reason other than being that little bit older and, in theory, now having an established level.

But Russell doesn’t appear to believe his seat is in any genuine danger, as it’s understood he hasn’t sought out finding a potential refuge at the likes of Red Bull; the team who would logically be the first port of call if their driver departed to take Russell’s Mercedes seat.

Indeed, paddock whispers have suggested Russell’s contract extension will be revealed sooner rather than later, and that the speculation surrounding a potential switch for Verstappen has been entirely incorrect and is merely the product of trigger-happy media attempting to guess at an outcome in the hopes of appearing prophetic if proven correct.

Why might Max Verstappen not be publicly committing to Red Bull?

It’s only a matter of time until clarity on these spinning plates is provided, but the Silverstone weekend, despite the public interviews appearing to give little away in terms of outcomes, has offered some hints as to which way things will go.

A meeting between Verstappen and Horner on Friday saw the two men discuss all the noise and drama that has enveloped both for quite some time, which is understood to have been very productive for re-establishing harmony in the face of crushing public scrutiny.

It’s believed the Dutch driver re-iterated to Horner his desire to continue racing for Red Bull for his entire F1 career, and he also told the media that, “I always said to the team it would be ideal, and I think they think the same way, to finish off my career in Formula 1 with one team.

“I think that would be something amazing, and that’s what we are still trying to achieve.”

But if that’s what Verstappen wants to happen, why is he seemingly reluctant to simply end the speculation and declare that he will race for Red Bull in 2026? Perhaps it comes down to simple factors related to contract renegotiations, knowing the power he has in the marketplace as other teams salivate over the prospect of securing him.

It’s a time period in which Verstappen has shown a huge interest in branching out his racing activities through his Verstappen.com racing team (which is run in collaboration with Red Bull); earning himself some extra concessions and freedoms, and perhaps commercial aspects such as image rights and marketing considerations, would be a comparatively small price for Red Bull to pay to keep Verstappen from looking elsewhere.

Such luxuries aren’t guaranteed elsewhere and, critically, nor is performance. While the rumours in the paddock are that Mercedes may hit the ground running, engine-wise, for the revolutionary F1 2026 regulations, there’s confidence in the ranks at Red Bull that its new Powertrains department has created a tidy unit for 2026; one that maybe might not be the standard-setter, but isn’t thought to be far off either.

There’s no team switch that guarantees success for next season and, given the fact Verstappen is in the enviable position of having a leading F1 team, one which is usually competitive, moulded entirely around him with no particular threat from elsewhere in the stable, moving for 2026 simply doesn’t make a lot of sense; although that doesn’t mean there’s any need, on Verstappen’s end, to head off the chance, perhaps out of concerns of complacency.

Indeed, having the relentless speculation of other teams potentially stealing him away serves as a galvanising force for Red Bull. It has been something of a transitional phase over the past two years for Red Bull, and the implied threat of Verstappen being wooed away could be a very powerful motivator for all the team’s departments to do their utmost not to lose him to a high-profile rival.

Or maybe it’s even simpler than that. Could it be that Verstappen simply doesn’t feel the need to stamp out the speculation, knowing that it’s a futile exercise given the frequency with which rumours about his decision-making emerge? As a man, the extent of Verstappen’s self-belief and confidence appears matched only by his driving talents; is it unthinkable that he believes the media, and the world in general, isn’t entitled to know the blow-by-blow minutiae of the decisions he makes regarding his life?

Perhaps, the default position should be that Verstappen is remaining with Red Bull, given that he has a contract in place until the 2028 season. Given his firm beliefs in the strength of his resolve, his loyalty, and infamous straight-talking nature, perhaps the thought of not honouring the commitment signed in slightly better times is simply not one Verstappen is entertaining; so why bother addressing?

Certainly, despite the noise, despite the dramas of the last week following the misfortunes of Austria that coincides with a recalcitrant RB21, the sight of Horner and the two Verstappens quietly walking out into the Northamptonshire evening together suggested that the bonds of the past 10 years haven’t been broken yet.

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