Las Vegas GP predictions: Joy for Ferrari, Verstappen champion and Mercedes despair
Could Carlos Sainz end his Ferrari career on a high by adding one more victory in Las Vegas?
Mercedes and George Russell start from pole position, but who is the real favourite to with the Las Vegas GP? And will Max Verstappen secure the F1 2024 title with two races to spare?
After an intriguing qualifying session on Saturday, the drivers face a race of low temperatures, high tyre management due to graining and many unknowns on the Las Vegas Strip street circuit.
Who will win the Las Vegas GP?
With Russell on pole after a great weekend and a surprising qualifying result for Pierre Gasly, who will start third, the Las Vegas race promises to be one of the most interesting of the season in terms of unpredictability.
With a circuit that allows great overtaking opportunities on the straights and low temperatures that will generate graining on all cars, it will be a race where strategy and tyre management will be key.
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We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Las Vegas GP race and encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well in the comments section below!
10: Esteban Ocon
Beating at least Kevin Magnussen’s Haas in qualifying and starting 11th, points are within reach for the Frenchman after his incredible P2 in Brazil.
He is expected to have a very tactical race, but certainly with enough pace to be able to fight for points.
9: Yuki Tsunoda
After a surprising result in Brazil in both qualifying and the race, Tsunoda has maintained his great momentum in qualifying in Las Vegas and will start the race in P7.
Ahead of him he will have a tricky race where he will have to drive mistake-free and with a good strategy in order to score some points to keep VCARB alive in the fight for P6 in the Constructors’ Championship against an in-form Alpine team.
8: Pierre Gasly
His great qualifying should allow him to fight for good points to consolidate Alpine’s P6 in the Constructors’ Championship.
Fighting for the podium and for positions higher than P6 is probably a very ambitious objective.
The race pace shown on Friday’s long runs put them clearly behind the top-four teams, but Alpine has consolidated its position as the outstanding fifth team in Las Vegas and that is already a very positive thing.
7: Lewis Hamilton
When it looked like he could fight for pole alongside George Russell, Hamilton failed again in his two Q3 attempts.
He had a great chance to achieve one last great result with Mercedes, but was not able to put together a clean lap.
Starting from P10 and with the lowest top speed car on the grid as qualifying data showed, Hamilton’s race is expected to be a tricky one with the added challenge of managing graining in a car that tends to overheat tyres quickly.
6: Oscar Piastri
Not a brilliant weekend for the Australian driver.
He starts the race in P8 and although his race pace should on paper be one of the best on the grid, he is a driver who struggles to overtake in dirty air… although the Las Vegas circuit is certainly conducive to doing so.
5: George Russell
Although the cold temperatures favour Mercedes especially in a one-lap performance because they can make their tyres work very quickly, they are expected to be one of the teams that suffer the most from graining because they also tend to overheat their tyres more than their rivals on a long run distance.
Friday’s long runs – even if we don’t know the fuel loads used and engine maps used- put Mercedes behind Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull in terms of race pace.
Therefore, despite starting in pole position and with the worst top speed on Saturday, Russell’s race should be a tough one.
4: Lando Norris
After a rather poor qualifying, McLaren’s race pace should allow him to climb positions in Las Vegas.
He starts P6 behind Verstappen, which in itself means he has to finish ahead of the Red Bull driver to keep his hopes of staying alive in the World Championship.
3: Max Verstappen
After a difficult FP1 and FP2 sessions, the expected classic ‘jump’ in qualifying was made and Verstappen did his job.
He will start the race P5 ahead of Norris, who should have better race pace.
But on Friday we didn’t get to see the full potential of Red Bull running with a detuned engine map and suffering from high drag on the straights.
Knowing Max’s hunger and competitiveness, all signs point to him becoming a four-time World Champion on a cold Las Vegas night.
2: Charles Leclerc
Beaten by his team-mate and Gasly in qualifying, he should be able to at least reach the podium in the race.
There are reasons and data to expect Ferrari to be the strongest team on Sunday.
1: Carlos Sainz
Sainz produced a great qualifying session, finishing less than a tenth of a second off Russell’s pole position.
The Spanish driver is facing his last three races with Ferrari and, after winning in Mexico relatively recently, there is every reason to believe that in Las Vegas he can take what is likely to be his last victory in red.
Ferrari’s race pace and tyre management should be enough to make the SF-24 the car to beat in the 50-lap Las Vegas race, where strategy and graining will be key.
Sainz is also an expert tyre manager and both he and Leclerc know that now is the time to make a final push in Ferrari’s quest for the Constructors’ World Championship.
It may be the last great opportunity to do so on this Las Vegas circuit.
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