Las Vegas GP data: Huge Red Bull RB20 loss discovered as big unknown identified

After a very cold and low-grip night in the US state of Nevada, Friday practice for the Las Vegas GP has left us with several clues for the rest of the weekend including an apparent ‘wrong’ choice of rear wing spec for Red Bull for this race.

Helmut Marko’s comments have set alarm bells ringing about Red Bull‘s performance for the rest of the weekend in Las Vegas.

Red Bull RB20 rear wing choice proving costly at Las Vegas GP

And it’s true that Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez have looked out of sorts in the first two Free Practice sessions.

Marko revealed after FP2 that the team had made the wrong choice with their rear wing spec for this race and that a different configuration with less downforce would not arrive in time for qualifying – something that certainly on the fast Las Vegas circuit can be key in determining the overall performance of the car.

But how much does the lack of top speed affect Red Bull?

By accessing the cars’ speed data and telemetry we can estimate the losses the RB20 faces in Las Vegas compared to its direct rivals.

While it is true that Red Bull did not try the soft tyre for a qualifying simulation during FP2, it is true that there is a clear lack of top speed on the straights.

Although the top speed lost to Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes is only 1 km/h at the end of the long straight between Turns 12 and 14, it can be seen that from 300 km/h onwards the drag clearly starts to affect the RB20.

The higher downforce wing induces a higher drag due to a bigger contact area of the wing against the air, which increases proportionally to the square of the speed.

This limits the car’s ability to reach top speeds on the straights.

Although the DRS effect reduces this in qualifying, in the race it can become a bigger problem when trying to overtake or defend from other drivers.

We estimate that the loss on this long straight between Hamilton and Verstappen was approximately +0.5s.

However, the biggest differences are seen in the slow corners especially due to the difference between the two tyres: soft for Hamilton and medium for Verstappen.

When Red Bull fits the soft tyre tomorrow, the delta compared to the top teams should clearly be reduced and their performance in Sector 2 should be enhanced.

Why has Red Bull chosen a higher downforce wing for Las Vegas?

Given the lack of grip and the low track temperatures both last year and this year, it makes sense to choose a slightly more loaded wing to improve tyre warm up and grip and also reduce the appearance of graining in the race, which seems inevitable.

It is also possible that Red Bull ran with more fuel and a less aggressive engine map on Friday.

So despite the worrying data, which clearly confirms Marko’s worries, we shouldn’t rule out seeing Red Bull at least inside the top six or top eight in qualifying when everyone is showing their full potential – and, of course, using the soft tyre.

The other side of the coin was Mercedes. Hamilton and George Russell seem to have been comfortable with the W15 from the outset with few grip issues.

This is a recurring theme with the Mercedes car. In low temperature situations they always perform better than in high temperatures.

This is the opposite of Ferrari, who were expected to be the undisputed favourites on this circuit.

The very low temperatures hurt them to the point that they have to do two warm-up laps before doing a push lap with the soft tyre and have it in the optimal working window as we have seen in FP2.

Turn 1 was a difficult spot for the Italian team on Friday due to the big braking required from a high top speed.

It is the area of the circuit where they lost the most time compared to the others. If they can find a better set-up overnight, with a better grip level after the data collected, they should fight for both pole and victory on Sunday.

McLaren is the big unknown.

It is always usual for them to run with more fuel on Fridays and, therefore, we have to wait until tomorrow to really know if they are ahead or behind Mercedes and Ferrari.

However, their time in Sector 2, the most twisty sector of the Las Vegas street circuit, looks positive.

Friday’s long runs were truly erratic and do not merit much in-depth analysis on our part.

However, it seems that McLaren and Ferrari have the advantage over Red Bull and Mercedes in this respect.

We will have to wait until Sunday to see if we have really seen the whole picture.

Interestingly, the teams are expecting graining to appear during the race and all of them have used the medium tyre for their long runs today.

In this way, everyone is saving two new sets of hard tyres for the race.

Pirelli’s harder option looks set to be the cornerstone of Sunday’s strategies as we could be looking at a two stop race where this compound is used during two stints.

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