Explained: Why Max Verstappen can beat McLaren in Brazil despite grid penalty

Lando Norris may have taken victory in the Brazilian GP sprint race after swapping positions with Oscar Piastri but it is Max Verstappen who has shown a more solid race pace and his chances of a comeback after his five-place grid penalty on Sunday seem optimistic.

Max Verstappen started the sprint race in P4 on the grid but the Dutch driver quickly got rid of Carlos Sainz as he looked to progress up the field.

Max Verstappen’s sprint pace suggests positive grand prix ahead

After one Ferrari was passed, it was time for the other and Verstappen stuck to the back of Charles Leclerc’s SF-24 but could not overtake directly and got trapped in a DRS train formed by Lando Norris, the Ferrari driver and himself as the last man in this trio.

This race situation lasted until lap 18, when Leclerc’s medium tyres gave out and Verstappen was finally able to overtake him to reach P3.

From here, +1.7s behind Norris, who had previously opened a gap to the Ferrari with a change of pace from McLaren highlighting the Italian team’s problem with keeping their tyres alive.

Verstappen also started pushing and started to chase down Norris and Piastri in the final stages of the race.

Verstappen closed the gap to +1.287s on lap 21, the closest he came to Norris after overtaking Leclerc. However, Nico Hulkenberg’s retirement on lap 22, which led to the double yellow flag at Turn 10, forced McLaren to bring forward their drivers’ position changes, which were scheduled for the final lap.

The FIA took one lap to bring out the Virtual Safety Car, and the Papaya team took advantage of this long delay to make the position change between Norris and Piastri on the straight before turn 4, losing as little time as possible before the race was neutralised by the VSC finally deployed on lap 23.

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Although McLaren never lost the 1-2 in the 24-lap sprint race, Verstappen was the driver with the best race pace at Interlagos. Even losing time behind Charles Leclerc for much of the race and having very few laps to chase down Norris, whom he closed the gap as soon as he had clean air, Max Verstappen was the fastest man at Interlagos.

With Ferrari suffering more than expected and Sergio Perez even making up five positions in the sprint race – albeit against lesser calibre rivals – with a new power unit, a good qualifying result and the pace he showed on track on Saturday added to his great tyre management even after the big lock up he suffered in the opening moments of the race, Verstappen can even dream of fighting for the win on Sunday.

McLaren proved strong, but vulnerable. Norris didn’t look solid enough today to even trouble his teammate, who struggled at the end of the race to keep Verstappen behind before the VSC.

Sunday’s race promises to be an interesting one with the added bonus of the threat of rain. Can Verstappen take his third win in Brazil despite the five-place grid drop penalty?

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