Brazil GP sprint predictions: Where will Norris and Verstappen finish?

Pablo Hidalgo 02 Nov 2024 7:30 AM

Lando Norris and Max Verstappen

After Oscar Piastri’s surprise Sprint pole ahead of Lando Norris in Brazil, the big debate that always happens when the Australian finishes ahead of the Briton in qualifying is reopened: will McLaren apply team orders to help Norris in his Drivers’ Championship fight against Max Verstappen? And another big question: can the Dutchman hold off Ferrari’s pace in the race?

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Brazilian GP sprint race, and encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Saturday’s race as well. And don’t forget, it’s only the top eight drivers who score points in the Sprint race format…

Brazilian GP Sprint Race: Top 10 Predictions

10. Liam Lawson

F1’s new “bad boy” is coming on strong on and off the track. With a great result in the Sprint Qualifying, Lawson will start P8 but will have some tough rivals to fight with to try and fight for points in the Sprint race in Brazil.

9. Pierre Gasly

Once again, great qualifying with a P7 finish from the French driver who is putting the Alpine very high in these sessions lately. Despite the fact that, unlike teams like Williams or Ferrari, the race pace is the weak point of the Enstone based team’s car, in FP1 it seemed solid despite completing a very short stint.

In a Sprint race with fewer laps Gasly should have the opportunity to fight head to head with Haas, Alexander Albon and Liam Lawson. This fight is sure to be one of the hot points of an intriguing 24 laps at Interlagos.

8. Oliver Bearman

After not having a time set in SQ3 due to a lap being deleted for exceeding track limits that would have seen him qualify P8, the Haas car is showing incredible pace this weekend.

Bearman also seems to be making the most of his opportunity with an ill Kevin Magnussen out for the remainder of the weekend. Therefore, the final points position awarded in this format would certainly be a great reward for his quick and great adaptation.

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7. Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton will have to push hard to reach the points in the Sprint race. This may work against him in tyre management, which Mercedes has struggled with recently, but the performance gap to his rivals, even if Haas looks solid, should see him reach P7 in 24 laps at best. It won’t be easy, though.

6. George Russell

Once again Russell was superior to Hamilton in a qualifying session. And although in the race Hamilton always has more pace than him, after Lewis’ poor Sprint qualifying, the short race should be a quiet one as the W15 doesn’t have the pace to fight the top 3, but is always a step ahead of the midfield. He will start P6 and we think he will also finish P6.

5. Max Verstappen

Verstappen will have to hold off Carlos Sainz and the Ferrari’s ferocious race pace if he wants to maintain the P4 achieved in Sprint Qualifying and even challenge for the podium.

However, the Spanish driver is in great form lately and the Dutchman beat him by only eight thousandths of a second in Sprint Qualifying. In the race, Ferrari’s pace advantage should work against them.

Red Bull did not show their full potential in the FP1 long runs with Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen apparently running with a more conservative engine map and more fuel in the tank so it is not immediately obvious how the RB20 will perform this time against the SF24 in tyre management and pace.

4. Carlos Sainz

After taking a special victory in Mexico, which could be his last win with Ferrari, Sainz has qualified P5 in Brazil, just ahead of Verstappen.

In both Austin and Mexico he has always shown an extra point of performance in the race, so we believe it should be no different at Interlagos and in 24 laps he should be able to fight and overtake Verstappen for P4.

In addition, despite a consistently very short long run stint on a well-worn medium tyre in FP1, Carlos Sainz had the fastest average time of the entire grid.

3. Charles Leclerc

After struggling in Mexico, the Monegasque driver seems to be more comfortable with the Ferrari in Brazil. After a good Sprint Qualifying, he will start the short race in third position. He has chances to fight for the win thanks to the great race performance of the SF24, but McLaren seems to have one more point of performance this weekend.

2. Oscar Piastri

Piastri surprised his teammate who had been the fastest during all sessions until SQ3. The Australian completed a great lap of the Interlagos circuit, setting the fastest time in Sector 2 of the whole weekend so far to make the difference.

With the Constructors‘ World Championship still up for grabs and Lando Norris still alive in the Drivers’ World Championship fight, the debate over whether or not Piastri should help his teammate will surely be reopened.

With the season much further advanced than in Hungary or Italy, these decisions are becoming increasingly critical and McLaren will surely play their cards wisely to find the best compromise between the individual objectives of their drivers and the team’s objective.

1. Lando Norris

With Red Bull fragile in the closing stages of the season and Ferrari on the rise, McLaren and Lando Norris must use their advantage at this circuit to take as many points as possible off Max Verstappen, who will also have a five-place grid penalty for Sunday’s race.

For now, in the Sprint race, Norris will have to fight for the win alongside his teammate and the Italian team, but being so fast this weekend, he should be the big favourite for the win in the 24-lap sprint race at the Interlagos circuit.