Mexican GP predictions: Sainz to win and no Max Verstappen podium

Carlos Sainz has a great opportunity at the Mexican GP to take perhaps one last win for Ferrari before becoming a driver for Williams. Behind him, he will have to hold off Max Verstappen and Lando Norris in what is expected to be an entertaining race with a spicy start.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Mexican GP, and encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well!

Top 10 Mexican GP Predictions

10. Alexander Albon

A difficult race ahead for the Thai driver. He will start P9 and will be surrounded by great rivals like Haas’ Nico Hülkenberg and Kevin Magnussen as well as the Alpine of Pierre Gasly.

However, as Fernando Alonso already said, Williams ‘is the new McLaren’ of the midfield in terms of race pace and that is something Albon should take advantage of with a car that is usually fast on the straights, both to defend from possible attacks and to be able to attack in Mexico.

9. Sergio Perez

Perez starts P18 in his home race. The result that best reflects how poor his season has been so far. He will have to make up a lot of positions to get into the points, but at the Mexican track, he should easily make up ground and the better race performance of the RB20 than most of the drivers around him, with much less powerful weapons in their hands.

Despite this, it was already demonstrated in Austin that Perez even struggles to stay inside the points-awarding positions against seemingly inferior opposition… But at home and with such a poor qualifying result, he cannot afford another bad race, not anymore.

If there is even a slim hope of him remaining on the F1 grid in 2025, being out of the points at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez may end it all.

8. Kevin Magnussen

Magnussen scored a strong P7 in qualifying and is certainly in a strong position to score points for Haas after failing to do so in Austin.

Haas’ top speed and the slight performance superiority of the American team should help him score his first points since the Italian GP in early September.

7. Oscar Piastri

After failing to qualify well and causing his first Q1 elimination this season, race day should certainly be better for Piastri.

The Australian driver will start 17th and with a lot of positions to make up, he will probably have to opt for a longer first stint to make the MCL38’s superior pace on track count.

From there, thanks to the long finish line straight, he should have enough time to reach the top 10 and reach P7, which is probably the best result he is aiming for in Mexico.

6. George Russell

After his crash in FP2, Russell has recovered well with a P5 in qualifying. The pace of the Mercedes W15 is nowhere near that of McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari, Mercedes are clearly superior to the midfield teams and his race should be straightforward alongside that of his teammate.

More on the Mexican Grand Prix weekend

?F1 starting grid: What is the grid order for the 2024 Mexican Grand Prix?

?Winners and losers from the 2024 Mexican Grand Prix qualifying

5. Lewis Hamilton

After a poor Q3 and a weekend to forget in Austin, Hamilton should slowly but surely get back on track at the Mexican GP. in his final races with Mercedes before heading to Ferrari.

The seven-time World Champion has two wins at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and with a good start can beat his teammate to gain the strategic advantage from the Mercedes pitwall.

4. Max Verstappen

It looks to be a tricky race for Verstappen in Mexico. The RB20 has struggled for race pace of late… and the P2 achieved in qualifying is just a mirage that his magic is still present and evident on a single-lap pace. But over long distances, it’s harder to cover the Red Bull’s performance flaws against McLaren and Ferrari.

This time, the podium is perhaps the best result Verstappen can aspire to despite being the most successful driver in Mexico in F1 history, but behind him, he will have two drivers hungry to overtake him on track, each with different motives…

3. Lando Norris

After all the controversy at the US GP in their final battle with Verstappen, this time Norris should be able to overtake the Dutch driver with a longer straight and a visibly superior car to the RB20 in Mexico.

If he is not able to overtake on the straight, will he play with the tactic of being in front at the apex of Turn 1 or any other corner? Will he have learnt his lesson to be more aggressive in his manoeuvres against a driver like Verstappen who does not hesitate to pull out all his weapons?

Perhaps the idea of fighting for the Championship is already a little distant for Norris after what happened in Austin and he wants a little personal revenge. Let’s see what this new classic 2024 battle brings.

2. Charles Leclerc

As happened with Carlos Sainz at the US GP starting from P4, Ferrari’s superior race pace should give the Monegasque a chance to overtake both Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.

In addition, he will start from a very favourable position at the start to take advantage of several slipstreaming effects and make up positions from the early stages.

Leclerc knows that he can fight for P2 in the Drivers‘ Championship and that Ferrari is emerging as a strong contender for the Constructors’ Championship. Now is the time to seize the opportunities for the Italian team.

1. Carlos Sainz

Last victory with Ferrari? Starting from pole position, he certainly proved he deserved it! Perhaps not the best circuit to start the race in P1 especially with Max Verstappen behind… but thanks to the superior pace of the SF-24 in the race he should still be the favourite to win in Mexico.

His chances of victory will clearly be affected by what happens after the first three corners of lap 1. Losing the lead is very possible as he will have no slipstream on the long straight before the braking at Turn 1.

Minimising damage will be important at that point and thereafter taking advantage of Ferrari’s great pace to get back to the number one spot and perhaps for the last time with the Scuderia for the Spaniard.

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