‘Risky’ McLaren upgrade fears raised as Toto Wolff examines Red Bull ‘collapse’

Oliver Harden
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Lando Norris leads at Zandvoort as Max Verstappen lags behind in the background

Lando Norris leads Max Verstappen at Zandvoort

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff believes McLaren have taken a “risky” approach to car development by introducing so few upgrades across the F1 2024 season.

And he has warned that Max Verstappen and Red Bull still cannot be written off even though the prospect of them running away with the World Championship has “collapsed.”

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Having produced the most dominant season in history in 2023, winning all but one of a possible 22 races as Verstappen eased to a third consecutive World Championship, Red Bull had been expected to annihilate the opposition again in F1 2024.

Yet after starting the season with four wins from the first five races, Red Bull have struggled in the face of a renewed threat from the likes of McLaren, Ferrari and Wolff’s Mercedes team.

Red Bull lost the lead of the Constructors’ Championship for the first time since May 2022 at last weekend’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix, where Oscar Piastri’s second career victory moved McLaren into top spot for the first time in more than a decade.

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McLaren hold a 20-point lead over Red Bull with seven races remaining, with Verstappen’s advantage over Lando Norris reduced to 59 points ahead of this weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix.

McLaren have cemented their status as F1’s fastest car despite a conservative upgrade strategy, with the team bringing their first major update since the Miami GP in early May to Zandvoort last month.

The Woking team’s development plan is in sharp contrast to their competitors, with Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari all experiencing dips in form as the season has developed.

Wolff believes McLaren’s strategy is “risky”, potentially leaving the team vulnerable if their rivals can make considerable gains between now and the end of the season.

Asked if the likes of Mercedes have tinkered too much with their cars compared to McLaren, Wolff told reporters: “I cannot tell you.

“I have heard Zak saying that the last upgrade they put on the car was in Miami, which maybe is the truth.

“So [if the] last upgrade [came] in Miami, the car is going quicker and quicker, so it’s consolidating.

“But this is risky too because if the others’ upgrades are working and they’re putting two tenths on the car, one tenth on the car, two tents on the car, they’re half a second ahead.

“And consolidating a package that is six months old doesn’t work either. That’s why many of us are getting it wrong.”

Wolff went on to claim that even McLaren were surprised by the success of their upgrades in mid-2023, which catapulted the team from the rear of the field to being Red Bull’s most consistent threat in the second half of the season.

And he pointed to Red Bull’s “collapse” since the start of the season is evidence of how quickly the competitive picture can change.

Asked if F1’s aerodynamic research restrictions has helped the opposition close the gap to Red Bull faster than during Mercedes’ dominant period, Wolff said: “It’s difficult to correlate and to find out what is it really that has caused this swing of performance, because you don’t always see them from season to season.

“You saw McLaren’s pace turned around last year in Austria and suddenly they became so competitive whilst not having that on the radar themselves.

“They thought [the upgrade brought] about two-and-a-half tenths upgrade, it was a second.

“They continued the trajectory, the car is in a sweet spot, they’ve taken the right decision since then and today it’s the quickest car.

“You see those swings in performance from Ferrari.

“At the beginning of the year, one would have said it’s another Verstappen/Red Bull runaway championship and it collapsed as it stands at the moment, but never write them off.

“It’s the same for us, quickest team before the summer [break] and now maybe third or fourth quickest.

“I don’t know if any rule change would trigger that, but those specific rules with the ground effect car in relation to the tyres can make you fall on the cliff quickly or make you get back on top.”

Speaking to media including PlanetF1.com at last month’s Dutch Grand Prix, team principal Andrea Stella described McLaren’s approach to both in-race strategy and car development as “safe”, claiming it is likely to be more beneficial than gambling on upgrades working.

He said: “We try and be considerate.

“Let’s say we think that over the course of a season, a robust approach could be more rewarding than trying to gamble and go for the jackpot all the time.”

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Red Bull Toto Wolff

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