Ranked: Max Verstappen’s next big F1 decision in order of likelihood

While under contract with Red Bull for the foreseeable future, there’s been plenty of speculation about Max Verstappen’s F1 future – particularly as 2026 looms.

While it once seemed unthinkable that Max Verstappen might actually leave Red Bull, this year has sown the seed of the possibility that he may seek a future elsewhere. While exiting his existing contract would involve all sorts of stresses – such as invoking performance or exit clauses, and likely hefty financial settlements – let’s weigh up the possibilities for Verstappen’s future, in order of likelihood…

1. Max Verstappen to remain with Red Bull

It’s the least surprising outcome, surely? After all, Verstappen has a contract stretching off way into the distant future – until 2028, to be exact.

Sure, Red Bull’s dominance may have come to an end but, while things may not be as smooth as they have been throughout 2022 and ’23, Verstappen still has a car that – on most occasions – is a contender for the victory.

But the situation does change quite dramatically for 2026. By then, gone is the influence of Adrian Newey – the chief technical officer who oversaw the designs of all of his title-winning Red Bulls – although there is stability in the technical line-up that benefitted from Newey’s expertise in recent years.

Pierre Waché, Enrico Balbo, Ben Waterhouse – these names have all been in place for years and have played a huge role in the creation of all of Verstappen’s title machines, including the most dominant car in F1 history, the RB20.

Just how convinced is Verstappen that Adrian Newey was the most important brain of Red Bull’s technical leadership? Surely that will be one of the critical factors in weighing up where he sees himself in the future.

There’s also the factor of his father, Jos, who has made it clear he’s not enamoured with how the team is being run and, while his son continues to make up his own mind as a truce between Jos and Christian Horner has apparently been struck, it’s additional pressure on Verstappen’s mind – does the idea of a clean slate at another team appeal to him?

The other main factor is obviously the power unit. Red Bull Power Trains (RBPT) has no history, no prestige, and no existing intellectual property upon which to call as the Red Bull department creates its first-ever F1 power unit. It’s a huge ask to nail it at the first go – as even Honda showed during their first years upon returning a decade ago.

It’s the toss-up of all toss-ups – will RBPT nail it, or will the first homegrown Milton Keynes F1 engine prove a flop? The 2026 championship, and perhaps many more, hinges entirely upon this question. If Verstappen does have his doubts, this would likely mean Mercedes is the next most likely outcome.

2. Max Verstappen to slot in as Lewis Hamilton’s spiritual successor

As it stands, all the signs indicate that the sensational possibility of a straightforward slotting into Lewis Hamilton’s cockpit is not going to happen for 2025, despite Toto Wolff’s best efforts to seduce the Dutch driver.

The solidification of the relationship between Red Bull Racing and Helmut Marko appears to have put to bed any chance of a quick and easy activation of any exit clauses for Verstappen and, given Red Bull’s understanding of the ground effect regulations over the past two and a half years, there’s little reason to think the 2025 car will be a damp squib – so why depart just yet?

But would Mercedes be willing to wait a year in order to get their man, or is Verstappen playing a high-risk game of poker if Kimi Antonelli gets the call-up and impresses to the full potential that the Brackley-based squad believes him capable of?

Should Antonelli manage this, then the way would appear shut for Verstappen – unless Mercedes believes Verstappen to be worth the disruption of removing either their new star, or George Russell. Would dropping one of their own ‘home-grown’ talents in favour of Red Bull’s talisman of 10 years be in keeping with what we’ve come to expect from Mercedes? Perhaps not…

But, should Antonelli fail to impress, then his status as a placeholder would make things straightforward to drop him back in order to slot Verstappen in alongside Russell.

Given that Mercedes nailed the last regulation change when F1 switched to the hybrid engines, Verstappen may also view the 2026 regulations reset as meaning that Mercedes is the safer place to be over the unproven Red Bull engine project – even if quite a few of RBPT’s staff came from Mercedes’ halls…

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3. Could Aston Martin spring a surprise to land Max Verstappen signature?

Seemingly out of nowhere, Aston Martin has emerged as a possible destination for Max Verstappen as Italian media have claimed team owner Lawrence Stroll is in negotiations with the Dutch driver.

There’s quite a lot of merit to this idea, which would have seemed preposterous not all that long ago. This is a team that has secured the services of two illustrious World Champions in recent years, with both Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso seeing great potential from the Silverstone-based team.

While Vettel was perhaps a little early for the party as Stroll began building up the infrastructure and facilities at the Silverstone factory, those facilities are now in place and are coming online – the first truly new F1 facility to be built/overhauled since McLaren’s Technology Centre 20 years ago.

According to the same Italian media reports, this has been enough to convince Adrian Newey to put pen to paper and commit himself on a four-year deal to join Aston Martin. As mentioned above, if Verstappen thinks Newey is the main catalyst for Red Bull’s dominance, then following him to his new team – equipped with the latest and best facilities and equipment – makes complete sense.

Added to that is the 2026 switch-up of engines. While Red Bull strikes out on its own to become a self-sustaining F1 team and manufacturer, Aston Martin takes over the official factory Honda engine power supply. While it took them several years to figure out the hybrid engines (after starting a year later than the others), Honda became the benchmark in 2021 and, thanks to the engine freeze, has remained at the top ever since.

Verstappen has always spoken glowingly about Honda’s contributions to his titles, while the Japanese manufacturer has been equally effusive in their praise for what the Dutch driver has achieved with their engines – he has even overtaken Ayrton Senna’s win record with Honda power.

Should the reports of Newey’s switch to Aston Martin prove accurate, which may come about in the next few weeks, Verstappen would thus be reunited with both Newey and Honda if he did decide upon a switch for 2026 – perhaps with Fernando Alonso as teammate, if Lance Stroll is moved aside from the F1 team.

How appealing would that be for Verstappen, to try bringing about a new era of F1 dominance for a team that has just five race wins in its history (four for its Jordan iteration, one for Racing Point)?

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