Belgian GP data reveals promising numbers for McLaren and Max Verstappen’s comeback

Friday’s Free Practice sessions at the Formula 1 2024 Belgian Grand Prix has left us with several clues and many doubts ahead of Saturday’s qualifying and Sunday’s race at Spa-Francorchamps.

McLaren has struck the first blow, but Red Bull hasn’t been left behind. With a 10-place grid penalty, Max Verstappen will have to qualify well to make a comeback on Sunday — but the possibility of a win isn’t out of the question.

Uncovered: Belgian Grand Prix FP1 and FP2 data

McLaren are the favourites for the race if dry conditions hold. The papaya team has so far been very solid on both single-lap pace and long-run race pace. Verstappen’s aforementioned penalty should give his rival outfit a great chance of another 1-2 on Sunday.

Although Lando Norris dominated the FP2 timesheets with a comfortable lead over Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen, the reality is that the British driver set his lap time almost 10 minutes after both of them with the greater track evolution that this entails. Therefore, the gap of two tenths between Norris and Verstappen is of little significance in one-lap pace.

And although we don’t know the fuel load and engine map used by each driver, we can see certain trends in the laps of Verstappen and Norris.

The Red Bull driver was quickest in the high and medium speed corners, while Norris dominated in the low speed corners. The second sector, where top speed and engine is less important, is McLaren’s territory.

If we analyse the performance of the drivers in two key Spa corners such as Pouhon (Turn 10) and Blanchimont (Turn 17), we can again see this trend where Red Bull outperforms McLaren in the fast corners.

The midfield/lower teams have generally opted to maximise their high speed performance as they have to compensate for their lack of aero efficiency compared to the top teams.

The top teams can afford to lower their top speed and maximise performance at lower speeds such as in sector 2. In addition to performance, this is also an advantage when it comes to tyre management in the race.

This will mean that the order in the midfield may alter slightly this weekend. Aston Martin and Haas have been solid and could excel in one lap pace to fight for the last two Q3 spots.

As we can see from the top speed charts, the differences between the top teams are small.

Charles Leclerc was the fastest driver of the ‘Big Four’, probably testing a lower aero load setting than Carlos Sainz. Red Bull did the same testing with Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez.

In terms of race pace, Max Verstappen and McLaren have stood out from the rest with relative difference. Again, we don’t know the engine map and fuel loads of each team. But the long runs put McLaren in the lead, although Max Verstappen on an older tyre was close to Oscar Piastri’s pace on the medium tyre.

On the soft tyre, Lando Norris was the fastest with a wide advantage over Ferrari and Mercedes. On a circuit where you have to have a high aero efficiency on the straights and you have to find the best compromise between fast and slow corners, the differences between the teams on the grid are more noticeable.

It is therefore logical that Red Bull decided to replace Max Verstappen’s ICE in Belgium and that he will receive a 10-place penalty at Spa-Francorchamps.

On a circuit where overtaking is relatively easy and thanks to the performance advantage that McLaren and Red Bull seem to have over the other teams, Verstappen’s chances could see him climb into the top five with ease and even fight for the podium.

Despite all this data there is one external factor that could change everything. Rain is a threat for Saturday with more than 80% chance of precipitation during qualifying. However, rain is not expected for the race.

Therefore, rain may see Max Verstappen suffer more than expected in qualifying against McLaren and Mercedes, who always appear to be strong in wet conditions. And the rain may also mean that McLaren will not have such a clear superiority over its rivals ahead of Sunday.

Saturday’s sessions will be key in defining Max Verstappen’s real chances in the race and also in determining whether McLaren will once again have it in their hands to achieve another 1-2.

Read next: Helmut Marko’s critical Max Verstappen admission as grid penalty looms