F1 2025 predictions: Mercedes’ left-field option and Williams lose out on Carlos Sainz

Sam Cooper 19 Jul 2024 6:00 AM

Liam Lawson, Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz

There is still plenty of negotiation to be done before the end of the season.

While the majority of the grid is now confirmed, there ares still some spaces up for grabs…

Just six seats remain unfilled as teams look to sort their future but, with a number of high-profile drivers still on the market, including a certain Carlos Sainz, there is still a lot of negotiating to be done.

Predicting the F1 2025 grid

Red Bull

On paper, this lineup is already decided with both drivers contracted for next season and beyond but Sergio Perez’s current form has put that into question.

The Mexican is not exactly holding up his end of the bargain when it comes to competing for the Constructors’ but it seems the once ruthless Red Bull are happy to hope Perez can turn it around.

Perez is sixth in the Drivers’ standings heading into Hungary but it would appear a lack of alternatives, as well as his significant sponsorship backing, is keeping him in the seat so for that reason, we can see him staying on for 2025, especially if he has an upturn in form for the rest of 2024. If Perez was to be swapped out, the smart money is on Liam Lawson to replace him.

As for Max Verstappen, there is a lot of talk of a move to Mercedes but such a swap would not come a year before a new regulation set.

Prediction: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez

Ferrari

One team that is done and dusted is Ferrari who confirmed Charles Leclerc would have a new team-mate for 2025 in the form of Lewis Hamilton.

The seven-time World Champion was the first domino to fall in the driver market but Ferrari can now sit back and relax as other teams try to get deals done.

McLaren

With drivers aged 24 and 23, it is hard to argue that anyone other than McLaren has the best young lineup on the grid.

To make things even sweeter, the two have shown themselves capable of challenging for podiums and wins and with contracts for 2025 and beyond, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will not be going anywhere soon.

Mercedes

Sitting eighth in the F2 standings, Project Antonelli has not got off to the lightning start Mercedes would have wanted to justify putting the young Italian in their seat next year.

With the 17-year-old looking like he needs another season to mature, the Silver Arrows may need a stop gap which can be a difficult position to negotiate from.

The best driver available is Carlos Sainz but the Spaniard appears reluctant to commit to another short-term deal, landing him in the same position next year as he currently finds himself.

For that reason, Mercedes could go rogue with someone like Valtteri Bottas returning for a season, although that seems unlikely, while Toto Wolff has been openly courting Max Verstappen which again seems unlikely for the time being.

That, then, makes this one of the more difficult seasons to guess so let’s go out of the box and predict Frederik Vesti.

While Antonelli is still learning the ropes in F2, Vesti was beaten only by winner Theo Pourchaire in 2023 and the Dane has been a part of Mercedes’ academy since 2021.

The 22-year-old has completed FP1s for the team in 2023 and so giving him a year to show him what he can do may be the best option out there. Should he hit the ground running, Mercedes then have an excellent young lineup but should he sink then Antonelli may be ready for a shot in 2026.

It’s a risk but could work out.

Prediction: George Russell and Frederik Vesti

Aston Martin

Another team done and dusted with both Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll signed up. Aston Martin did say they looked around before confirming Stroll but ultimately the Canadian has been given a new deal.

VCARB

Definitely one of the most talked about teams when it comes to 2025 seats with both Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo having stories about their future come out recently.

For Tsunoda, he will definitely be on the grid in 2025 with his contract being extended, the only question is will it be in the white of VCARB or the blue and red of Red Bull? The latter has always seemed unlikely so we predict he will be in Faenza again next year.

As for Daniel Ricciardo, his future is less decided. As it stands, his contract ends this season but his form has not been enough to generate a new deal, even if it has improved of late.

The main problem for Riccardo is Liam Lawson who is younger and showed himself capable in his run out in 2023.

Helmut Marko has hinted that if Red Bull do not offer Lawson a seat, he is free to move elsewhere but reports suggest Ricciardo is still very much in contention.

Ricciardo is known to be a favourite of Christian Horner and if his upwards momentum continues, we can see the Australian being given another year. As to what that means for Lawson, well we will come onto that later…

Prediction: Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda

Haas

With Kevin Magnussen confirmed to be leaving, it seems only a matter of time before Esteban Ocon’s move is also confirmed.

The current Alpine driver has long been linked with Haas and his suggestion that his future is not tied to that of Sainz’s would hint he has a deal already done.

All signs point to Haas so we suspect Ocon will line up alongside Oliver Bearman in 2025.

Prediction: Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman

Alpine

The charm offensive has begun from Alpine as they look to entice Carlos Sainz to the team. Having confirmed they would not be extending Ocon’s stay, the team have been on the lookout for a new driver to partner Pierre Gasly and ever since Flavio Briatore arrived, securing Sainz has seemed a genuine possibility.

The latest whisper should have Alpine as the front runners and Sainz could be tempted by reports that the French outfit may start using Mercedes engines from 2026.

For Gasly, he will be with the team for two more years having signed a new deal in June.

Prediction: Pierre Gasly and Carlos Sainz

Williams

At one point, Williams thought they were leading the chase to sign Sainz, so much so it was believed to be only a matter of time before the deal was announced.

But things move fast in the world of F1 and James Vowles is looking at a future away from his number one target.

Logan Sargeant seems almost certain to depart and before there was talk of Sainz, there was talk of Bottas.

The experienced Finn would be a good option for Williams to take up and with him and Alex Albon, Williams would have the quality they need to start pushing up the order.