Five Spanish GP questions: Carlos Sainz’s future, Ferrari upgrades, Mercedes on the up?

A familiar track for the drivers returns as Formula 1 heads to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the Spanish Grand Prix.

A venue which previously hosted pre-season testing, lack of miles will not be an issue for the drivers this weekend but what can we expect to see?

Five questions for the Spanish Grand Prix

Additional reporting by Pablo Hidalgo

Will Red Bull be clear favourites again?

Having overcome fierce competition to win in Canada, Red Bull are the favourites to once again take victory this weekend in Barcelona.

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a track that has historically been good for the Red Bull team as Max Verstappen scored a grand chelem last year, the third of his career.

Leading all 66 laps of the race, the Dutchman finished 24.09 seconds ahead of P2 Lewis Hamilton in what was Red Bull’s sixth biggest winning margin of 2023.

It was the second year in a row Verstappen has won and you have to go back to 2015 for the last time someone not called Verstappen or Hamilton won at this venue. It was also the location for Verstappen’s first F1 win following his remarkable debut with Red Bull in 2016.

Even with a more conservative strategy, Verstappen had a higher average pace than all his rivals. Ferrari and McLaren suffered badly, while Mercedes found good pace.

After suffering at such distinctive circuits as Miami, Imola, Monaco and, most recently, Canada, Barcelona is a classic track where Red Bull should exploit the strengths of its car without suffering from the bumps or big kerbs present in the last tracks.

The stiff suspension geometry that allows them to maximise the RB20’s ground effect should be as effective as it was at the start of the season in Bahrain.

It is clear that since then, the forces on the grid have been shifting. Ferrari and McLaren’s improvements have been evident and it is no longer so obvious that Red Bull is assured of victory but in Spain, the Milton Keynes-based team should once again be slightly stronger than its competitors.

In the event of a very close pack as we have been used to in recent races, Red Bull will only have a fighting chance with Verstappen on the front row for the race start. Sergio Perez carries a three-place grid penalty from the Canadian GP and this could be key strategically.

Barcelona is a very demanding race for tyres and at least two stops are expected. The tyre choice for the start tends to be very varied, as we’ve seen, and having two drivers well placed at the top can help to fight for positions in the pits. Again, unless Sergio Perez can qualify at the front, this could be a handicap for Red Bull.

⁠⁠Can Mercedes confirm the step forward against Ferrari and McLaren?

If McLaren was the big positive surprise at the Miami GP, it was Mercedes who impressed most in Canada. A positive upwards trend was on display with George Russell’s pole in Montreal and the Brackley squad had powerful race pace too.

The Spanish GP will be the litmus test for the Silver Arrows who, after the introduction of their new front wing, seem to have taken a very clear step forward as we can see in the following graph.

In what is a ‘wind tunnel’ turned track, Barcelona will also be the scene of another duel between Hamilton and Russell. Both missed a golden opportunity in Canada to even fight for victory but the W15 looks set to be at least a weapon capable of fighting for the podium at a circuit where both drivers tasted the champagne last season.

Can Ferrari bounce back from Montreal meltdown?

After a double retirement and a disappointing qualifying with both cars out of Q3, Ferrari gave the chance to turn the situation around with Carlos Sainz racing at home.

The high temperatures should be in the interests of the Italian team which tends to suffer in cooler conditions, as was the case in Canada, and the SF-24 is one of the cars that best manages degradation.

In terms of track characteristics, Barcelona is perhaps a track more focused on Red Bull’s interests but tyre management will be key and Ferrari will need to play their cards right. It will be Sainz’s last race in red in front of his home crowd and the Spaniard will hope to bring an extra point of speed to make the difference in a tight top end.

In addition, it is possible that the Maranello-based team could bring an upgrade focused on improving low-speed cornering performance to Barcelona. These updates would feature a revised floor and slight modifications to the rear of the car aimed at improving diffuser performance.

Will we learn more about Carlos Sainz’s potential move to Williams?

The rumour mill has been in full flow of late and it looks increasingly likely that we may soon have an answer to the question of where Carlos Sainz’s future lies.

The latest reports strongly link him to Williams to join James Vowles’ growing project and there has been the suggestion that such an announcement will be made ahead of his home race this weekend.

Both Sainz and Vowles will be in front of the microphone this weekend so we could hear more about the impending move.

If Sainz were to join Williams, he would be the first race winner to be at Grove since Robert Kubica.

Can home favourite Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin recover the good sensations?

After three races with a completely unknown Fernando Alonso, the Spaniard was once again at his best in Canada with a good qualifying and a good race for Aston Martin.

But before that, Lance Stroll had just beaten him in qualifying three times in a row which is all but unheard of in Alonso’s long F1 career.

While it is true that the performance of the car has not been good, Alonso himself has admitted he was not comfortable in the AMR24. But after returning to his usual form in Canada, Barcelona is a test for both him and Aston Martin.

The Silverstone team have gradually improved this season and although in Canada they made a small leap forward, the Spanish circuit will really show how far they have fallen behind the leading group formed by Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes as the latest addition.

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